Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The US will begin what President Trump said would be an unprecedented economic warfare operation against Iran, after faulting the country for failing to take its chance to make a deal with him. 
• The Trump administration is poised to reduce tariffs on automobiles imported from Canada to 15% from 25% as part of a broader deal that would see the US neighbor drop retaliatory trade measures, according to people familiar with the matter. 
• Hudson River Trading pulled in a record $11.4 billion of trading revenue in the second quarter and went on to post a gain for the month of July, defying an AI stock rout that caused a staggering monthly loss at rival Jane Street. 
• After US 30-year bond yields hit their highest levels since the financial crisis, the Treasury announced an increase in buy-backs. 
• US fuelmakers are running refineries harder than at any point since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran, part of an all-out effort to keep global markets supplied with diesel, jet fuel and gasoline. 
• YouTube is offering millions of dollars to popular channels if they upload their videos to the site exclusively for a certain period of time -- and don't upload to Netflix. 
• Investment experts see ways to capitalize on the AI trend beyond the usual. 
• The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is asking for public input on futures contracts for the computing power that undergirds the artificial intelligence sector as industry heavyweights move to embrace so-called compute as a tradable asset. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.   
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Indicates Plans To Meet North Korea's Kim Jong-Un Later This Year.
• "Doom Loop" Engaged: US Debt Hits $40 Trillion As Treasury Enters The Endgame. 
• Total US interest is now $1.4 trillion. It will surpass Social Security as the largest US government outlay ($1.6 trillion per year) by 2028.
• Amazon 'Prime Air' To Expand Drone Delivery To Nearly 500 US Cities This Year. 
• 8 Examples That Demonstrate That The Islamization Of America Is Steadily Progressing.
• Your Bank Data Could Become A Profit Center - And You'll Pay the Price.
• 'Quality Over Quantity': Reddit Is Mostly Wiped From ChatGPT Citations.
• All correlations breaking down. "What has been striking more recently is the bifurcation between the AI and non-AI trade, illustrated by the lowest and most negative correlation on record between our GS Broad AI basket (GSTMTAIP) and SPXXAI Index. The basket and the index have only traded in the same direction 1/3rd of the time in the last 3 months (vs ~2/3rd historical average)." - Goldman.
• The DSA's War On Wealth.
• "This Only Works For So Long": Wall Street Reacts To The Treasury's Shocking Buyback Boost. 
• Bets on Long-Bond ETF Spiked a Day Before US Announced Buyback: BBG. of course they did.
• Harvard To Pay $53 Million To Families Of Donors Whose Body Parts Were Sold Off.
• The $1.5 Million Rich Kid Socialist: NYC-DSA Co-Chair Gustavo Gordillo Lives The Revolution From Daddy's Townhouse.
• The Cruelty Of DEI.
• Bitcoin & Bullion Explode After Bessent-Bailout, Yield-Curve & Dollar Crushed; Tech Tepid On Momo-Mess.          

• @CNBC  

• CNBC Daily Open: Treasury attempts to rein in bond yields as U.S. debt swells past $40 trillion. 
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Japan exports growth accelerates for fifth straight month, beating estimates, on robust chip shipments. 
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Trump announces 'economic warfare' on Iran, threatens ‘tremendous’ consequences for its backers.
• Call-buying bonanza around Trump's Hyperliquid comments includes some eyebrow-raising trades.
• S&P 500 futures are little changed after index snaps three-day slide: Live updates.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +2.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.75 -.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 35.5 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.03%. 
• Crude Oil 86.10/bbl. +.3% 
• Gold 4,556.0 USD/t oz. +.24%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.41 +.35%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.46 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.9 +.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.63% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.0% -12.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.26%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.17%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.53%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and pharma shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.