Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.8 +.4%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.0 -2.0%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 -2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.14 -9.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.5 +1.0%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 140.5 +.5%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 57.1 -2.0%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 92.3 +3.0
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.7 -.1
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 66.3 +4.8
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.4 -1.0
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(384 of 500 reporting) +51.9% -3.2 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 385.65 +1.37: Growth Rate +31.1% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.1 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.19% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 939.08 +10.69: Growth Rate +81.1% +2.1 percentage points, P/E 19.7 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.16 +3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 43.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.9 +.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 53.4 euros/megawatt-hour -4.6%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.9% +.3 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.9% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.62% +1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.59 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 52.9% (-5.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 51.4%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -340 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -113 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +2 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +145 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% net long
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