Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Declining Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Diminished War-Induced Inflation Fears, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.60 -1.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 75.0 +1.7% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.18 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.3 -1.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 138.5 -1.7%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 54.0 -2.5%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.5 -1.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -2.6

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.9 +1.2

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.6 +4.5
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(454 of 500 reporting) +50.6% -.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 389.05 +.46:  Growth Rate +32.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.0 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.25% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 945.25 +.49: Growth Rate +82.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.8 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.41 +12.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 49.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.4 -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 60.7 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.7% unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.8% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.64% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 -4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 52.4% (+7.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 44.9%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,030 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -6 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +26 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my financial/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% net long