Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Trump insisted Tuesday that there were no talks ongoing with Iran, leaving the simmering conflict in the Middle East and control of the Strait of Hormuz stuck in limbo. 
• BREAKING: Donald Trump taps White House policy aide Heidi Overton to lead the FDA after months of tumult.
• Market watchers are keeping their eyes peeled for token sales by the biggest marginal buyer of Bitcoin. 
• After a raft of data helped all but price out interest rate hikes for the rest of the year, wagers in the options market are looking to hedge the risk that the Fed pivots to cutting rates in 2027. 
• LG Energy is in talks with the US government and major defense contractors to supply batteries for drones and other unmanned weapons systems. 
• Goldman struck its second deal in a week as the firm pushes ahead with plans to grow its $4 trillion money-management arm. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• Minority Leader Jeffries Drops The Mask, Signals Democrats Are Coming For The Court. 
• Disengagement: Trump Vows New Strategy To 'Strangle' Iran Over Time. 
• ICE Proposes Insurance Coverage For Local Officers Involved In Immigration Arrests.       
• Did he blow up again? Today’s momentum sell off was one of the 10 biggest in the post chatGPT era: GS. 
• Fauci Aide Pleads Guilty To Conspiracy That Shielded EcoHealth Records, Countered Lab-Leak Narrative.
• OpenAI's revenue grew much slower than Anthropic's last quarter, disappointing investors who hoped the ChatGPT maker would start to catch up to its rival: WSJ.
• Inside The DSA's Dilemma: Grow The Democratic Party Or Become It.
• Rubio Announces Sanctions Against International Criminal Court President & Top Lawyer.
• Why Teens Are Struggling To Find Summer Jobs.
• UAE Foreign Ministry says All Trade, Commercial Exchange, and Financial Transactions with Iran Halted.      
• Comcast Turns Millions Of Routers Into Motion Sensors - The Same WiFi Signals Can ID You With 99.5% Accuracy.
• China Added 200,000 Bpd To Crude Reserves In July Despite Hormuz Crisis.
• NY, TX and there goes PA. Pennsylvania will sharply limit data center development, expand review process: WaPo.
• Unitree IPO 5,550 Times Oversubscribed As UBS Says Grey Market Points To 3.5x Open.
• Vaccine-Maker Claims Splitting MMR Shot Could Take Up To 10 Years. 
• "Another pretty quiet overnight session, with bond yields at center of most discussions. By most metrics, we’ve reached exceptionally low vol levels (VIX, Sp500, FX, etc) which tells us summer is truly upon us. That said, the eerie feeling of leaking long end bonds, mini-flash crashes within AI-sphere, and unrelenting discourse on which way the global economy will go is not exactly making those in the seat feel completely relaxed." - JPM S&T.
• Goldman Delta One: "Trump approval just hit 33%, the low of this term and tied with his prior term low. Democratic control of both chambers is now roughly a coin flip on Polymarket (most likely scenario), Surprising given where things stood a few months ago, but an unpopular war + higher gasoline is clearly biting. There should ultimately be some reflexivity here… I still struggle with a sustained right tail oil outcome because as prices have risen we have always seen a policy response (unilateral deal extension by end of week?). The more interesting medium term read through is bonds. A dem sweep at mid term probably means more pressure for healthcare/social spending (that Trump doesn't pushback on). Note AOC now narrowly favorite on Polymarket odds for 2028 Dem nominee." 
• KORU JENKINS with ye olde -25%. Who is getting Leopolded?       
• Bonds Bid On Bad Data & 'Hormuz Open', Tech Credit Sinks Stocks, Goldman Reveals 'The One Rate That Matters'.

• @CNBC  

• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.  
• Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 posts third straight losing day: Live updates. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Toll Brothers, Keysight Technologies, La-Z-Boy & more. 

• @WallStEngine

• OPENAI GENERATED $6.7B IN Q2 REVENUE, UP 18% QoQ.  
• Anthropic is preparing to give CEO Dario Amodei and other co-founders enhanced voting rights ahead of a potential IPO as soon as late September. The structure is designed to protect leadership from outside shareholder pressure as the founders hold relatively small economic stakes. Amodei reportedly owns roughly 2%. Anthropic also plans to retain its Long-Term Benefit Trust, which holds special shares allowing it to elect a majority of the company’s board. 
• U.S. NUCLEAR BUILDOUT STARTS MOVING INTO EXECUTION. $OKLO says it has entered physical “build mode” at Idaho National Laboratory, a key step toward its planned 1.2 GW Ohio deployment supporting $META data centers. Meanwhile, TerraPower expects to announce another nuclear project for a data center this year. Big Tech is increasingly becoming the customer base for new nuclear: 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.5% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.5 +.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 36.25 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%. 
• Crude Oil 85.70/bbl. +.9% 
• Gold 4,410.20 USD/t oz. -.23%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.31 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.34 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 128.1 -1.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.71% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.14% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.02%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.