Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +5.3% 2) Alt Energy +3.1% 3) Networking +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MAZE, PACCS, RCAT, OXM, TEM, RMBS, BKSY, SNDK, ZLAB, CRCL, GDS, RVMD, CNC, NEGG, AEVA, VSAT, ADPT, TMDX, GRAL, SNPS, DUOL, SERV, MU, AG, OKLO, BABA, DBRG, ACMR, VCEL, GLXY, SEI, RKLB, GEO, LRCX, BE, TWST, SKYT, ONC, DAKT, WBD, DAVA, COOP, RKT, SIMO, CENX, HNGE, JAMF, KC, ZYME, PFSI, NCLH, MENS, ACLX, BMNR, INOD, ETSY, IONQ, CXW, PGY, KKR, CDNS, GILT, WIX, TSLA, AMAT, OPRX, BIDU, GCT, CCL, BX, ZS, VCTR, CYD, ABBV, LTM, AVAV, OLN, SOUN, ROIV, CUK, TECK, WLDN, SOUN, HSAI, AMRK, WH, FTV, RIVN, Z, CASY, ZG, BAND and XYL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GOSS 2) GEO 3) CLOV 4) FHN 5) SNPS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OPEN 2) AMST 3) OCC 4) LBRX 5) OXM

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) IGV 3) XLF 4) SOXX 5) GRID

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• The Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to 58.0 versus 58.2 in Aug.
• The Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index is estimated at +4.8% versus a prior estimate of a +4.8% gain. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The WASDE report, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the weekly Baker Hughes rig count could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.2 unch.
• 0 Sectors Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 81.5% of Issues Advancing, 16.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.33 -15.8% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$200.7M
  
• 190 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 61.0% (+3.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 72.6 +5.5

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 82.2 +1.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 256.5 +.5%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 163.7 +.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 53.0 (NEUTRAL) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.8 -27.1%
  
• Vix 14.9 -2.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 unch.

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge   

• "Dark Moment For America" - Trump Addresses The Nation After Kirk Assassination.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.5 -.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 40.75 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.91 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.43 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 81.1 -.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.05% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.09%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Falling Long-Term Rates, AI-Induced Corporate Productivity Optimism, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 +.01%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.03% -6.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.03% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.2 -.6

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.7 +.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.5 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +12.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 291.79 +.12:  Growth Rate +11.4% unch., P/E 22.4 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 484.57 +.16: Growth Rate +18.5% unch., P/E 33.2 +.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.54 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 -.3
• US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.1% +10.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.6% -1.4 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 73.3% (+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 66.2%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -47 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -51 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -2.5% 2) Computer Services -1.8% 3) Electric Vehicles -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RELX, DT, AMRK, GCT, SMMT, JACK, SXT, CDNS, ACHC, AVO, ZLAB, UPST, ONC, TTD, SLNO, GSAT, RBRK, CHWY, RAPP and SNPS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SNPS 2) ORCL 3) LYV 4) SHEL 5) BITF

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNPS 2) CHWY 3) WOLF 4) IMAB 5) SLNO

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) GDX 3) IGV 4) XLU 5) MSTY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume