Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Falling Long-Term Rates, AI-Induced Corporate Productivity Optimism, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 +.01%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.03% -6.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.03% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.2 -.6
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.7 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.5 -.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +12.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 291.79 +.12:  Growth Rate +11.4% unch., P/E 22.4 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.4% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 484.57 +.16: Growth Rate +18.5% unch., P/E 33.2 +.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.54 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 -.3
  • US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.1% +10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.6% -1.4 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 73.3% (+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 66.2%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -47 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -51 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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