Stocks Surging into Final Hour on AI-Induced Corporate Profit Margin Expansion Hopes, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Construction Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.58 -.13%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.10% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.97% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.6 +4.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.3 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.6 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +5.7% +.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.83 +.12:  Growth Rate +11.8% unch., P/E 22.7 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 487.17 +.23: Growth Rate +19.1% unch., P/E 33.5 +.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .88 -16.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 +.3
• US Yield Curve 53.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.3% -1.8 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.73 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 82.3% (+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 51.9%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +430 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/tech/industrial/financial sector longs and emerging markets shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long