Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day

• @ZeroHedge    

• Mexico's 50% Tariff On Chinese Cars Will Set Off Global Butterfly Effects.
• US Deficit Explodes In August Despite Rising Tariff Revenues As Government Spending Soars.
• Exodus: Affordability Crisis Sends Americans Packing From Big Cities.
• Brazilian Supreme Court Issues Harsh 27-Year Sentence For Bolsonaro, Trump Responds.
• EU To Resist Trump Pressure To Hit China & India With 100% Tariffs.
• US State Department Warns Visa Holders Against Cheering Charlie Kirk's Assassination.
• 77% of Republicans believe it is always unacceptable to feel joy at the death of someone they oppose, while only 38% of Democrats share this view (YouGov).
• BREAKING: Per multiple federal sources to @FoxNews, the suspect arrested in the grisly machete beheading of a motel manager in Dallas, TX yesterday is a Cuban illegal alien who was released into the US by the Biden admin in January despite having an active deportation order. I'm told YORDANIS COBOS-MARTINEZ was released from ICE custody by the Biden admin on 1/13/2025, one week before Trump took office, due to "no significant likelihood of removal in the forseeable future".
• BREAKING: The Secret Service and NYPD Counterterrorism Task Force have a manhunt underway for a person who has made threats against President Trump, who is attending tonight's game at Yankee Stadium. The FDNY and NYPD have issued alerts to their members to use caution.
• *OPENAI EQUITY STAKE IN PUBLIC BENEFIT CORP VALUED AT $100 BLN.
• *MICROSOFT, OPENAI REACH PRELIMINARY UNDERSTANDING ON ALLIANCE. 
• Of Buggy Whips And AI Chips In PA.
• "He Was Definitely Murdered": Watch Sam Altman Squirm As Tucker Grills Him Over Whistleblower Death. 
• *SUPERMICRO BEGINS VOLUME SHIPMENTS OF NVIDIA BLACKWELL ULTRA.
• Father Of Ukrainian Girl Brutally Murdered In US Missed Funeral Due To Martial Law. 
• They want to dehumanize us, so they can demonize us. They want to demonize us, so they can kill us. The mainstream media is 100% complicit in Charlie Kirk’s death. (video)
• Calm Consumer Prices Send Rate-Cut Odds Soaring As Gold Tops Inflation-Adjusted Record High.

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to trade higher, tracking Wall Street gains.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Stock futures are flat after rate-cut hopes send market to new highs: Live updates. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Adobe, RH, Super Micro Computer & more. 

• @TheTranscript 

• "Microsoft & OpenAI have signed a non-binding MOU for the next phase of our partnership. We are actively working to finalize contractual terms in a definitive agreement". $MSFT: +2% AH.
• Adobe CFO: "[We] delivered record Q3 revenue, with strength in subscription revenue across both Digital Media and Digital Experience segments. We’re raising our FY25 total revenue and EPS targets..." $ADBE: +3% AH. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.5 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 39.5 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.47 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.5 +1.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.03% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.06%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.