Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.48 +.17%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.07% -9.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.0% -10.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.0 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -2.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -5.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.9 -.2 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.6% +.3 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.25 +.10: Growth Rate +10.8% unch., P/E 22.4 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.4% +.5 percentage point
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.87 +.17: Growth Rate +16.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 +5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.43 -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.5 -.8
- US Yield Curve 58.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.0% +.1 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -7.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 75.1% (+21.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 68.7%(+22.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/financial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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