Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.51 -.18%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.13% +3.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.97% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 106.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour -2.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.6 -1.0 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.7 +.4 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.7 +.1 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) -.8% -6.5 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.03 +.20: Growth Rate +11.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.7 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 487.17 +.79: Growth Rate +19.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.5 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +63.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 unch.
- US Yield Curve 55.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.4% -1.9 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 -4.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 80.6% (-1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.1%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +85 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +42 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +156 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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