Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.43 -.31%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.96% +3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.9 +4.6 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.1 -6.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.1 -.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 500 reporting) +18.0% +18.8 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.03 +.23: Growth Rate +11.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 490.38 +1.13: Growth Rate +18.9% -.8 percentage point, P/E 32.8 -.6
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .70 -6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 2.10 +45.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.1 +.1
- US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.1% +.6 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.74 +6.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 75.2% (+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.5%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -140 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -41 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +131 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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