Monday, September 22, 2025

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on AI-Induced Profit-Margin Expansion Optimism, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 +.08%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.94% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.84 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -3.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.0 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.4 -1.3 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) -.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.28 +.25:  Growth Rate +12.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.8 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 488.96 +1.82: Growth Rate +19.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 33.6 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.54 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 53.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.2% -.2 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.66 -3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 73.4% (-5.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 51.8%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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