Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 +.08%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.94% -3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 106.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.84 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -3.4 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.0 +.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.4 -1.3 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) -.8% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.28 +.25: Growth Rate +12.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.8 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 488.96 +1.82: Growth Rate +19.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 33.6 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.54 +3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 unch.
- US Yield Curve 53.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.2% -.2 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.66 -3.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 73.4% (-5.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 51.8%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +100 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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