Stocks Rallying into Afternoon on Falling Long-Term Rates, Surging Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 +.15%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.02% -1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.02% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour -2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.9 -8.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.4 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.4 -1.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +12.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 291.92 +.13:  Growth Rate +11.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 485.09 +.52: Growth Rate +18.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.0 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 -.1
• US Yield Curve 48.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.1% +10.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.6% -1.4 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 86.0% (+12.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 80.5%(+12.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +262 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long