Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.65 -.12%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.07% +4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.96% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.1 -2.7 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.2 +.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.9 -.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +5.5% -2.8 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.71 +.17: Growth Rate +11.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.95 +.26: Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 -.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.04 -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 unch.
- US Yield Curve 52.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% -10.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.1% +1.2 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.76 +4.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 91.0% (+16.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 86.6%(+17.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -140 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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