Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, End-of-Quarter Window Dressing, Technical Buying, Pharma/Defense Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.38 +.02%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.93% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -3.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.8 -2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.2 -2.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.6 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +15.5% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.68 +.14:  Growth Rate +12.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.24 -13.05: Growth Rate +17.2% -3.2 percentage points, P/E 33.8 +.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 54.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 -5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 77.7% (+10.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 56.6%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -6 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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