Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.38 +.02%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +1.0 basis point
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.93% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -3.6%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.8 -2.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.2 -2.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.6 -.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +15.5% -.4 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.68 +.14: Growth Rate +12.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.7 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.24 -13.05: Growth Rate +17.2% -3.2 percentage points, P/E 33.8 +.7
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 -5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -8.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 unch.
- US Yield Curve 54.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 -5.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 77.7% (+10.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 56.6%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -6 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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