Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.32%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% +2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.98% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.5 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.1 +17.2 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.7 -.4 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.4 +.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +16.6% -1.4 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.26 +.23: Growth Rate +12.1% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.6 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 489.43 -.95: Growth Rate +20.5% +1.6 percentage points, P/E 33.0 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.54 -56.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 -.4
- US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.8% -.3 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 +1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 60.4% (-12.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 51.5%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -339 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +148 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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