Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.41 -.08%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.18% -4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.10% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.44%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour +.93%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.9 -2.9 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.1 -.7 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.1 -.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +12.3% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.15 +.12: Growth Rate +10.8% unch., P/E 22.3 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +27.9% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.70 +.33: Growth Rate +16.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.5 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .56 +3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 +13.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
- US Yield Curve 58.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.9% +1.1 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 -3.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.0% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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