Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge    
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • JIMMY KIMMEL PULLED FROM AIR IN 32 ABC MARKETS AFTER COMMENTS ON CHARLIE KIRK. Nexstar Media Group will remove Jimmy Kimmel Live! from its 32 ABC stations, preempting the show indefinitely after Kimmel’s remarks on Charlie Kirk’s assassination. Nexstar owns or operates 200+ stations across 116 U.S. markets, meaning Kimmel is now blacked out in major cities like Nashville, Salt Lake City, New Orleans, Richmond, Knoxville, Albany, Syracuse, and Harrisburg. Nexstar: “Mr. Kimmel’s comments are offensive and insensitive… We’ve made the difficult decision to preempt his show in an effort to let cooler heads prevail.”
  • @Rothbard1776
  • @newstart_2024
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @sovereignbrah
  • @I_Am_JohnCullen
  • @CollinRugg
  • Former President Barack Obama starts listing out the things he disagreed with Charlie Kirk on before pointing blame at the Trump White House for political division. Obama also patted himself on the back, claiming his White House never had "extreme views" like Trump's does. What a despicable response. (video)
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @HustleBitch_
  • CHARLIE KIRK: “I think the DOJ should immediately move to unseal all the Epstein documents. I think every file should be released to the public. Let the American people decide.” MEGYN KELLY: "Put them all out there. Because if there's nothing in there, then we can see there's nothing in there." Hard to believe that was just 2 months before he was assassinated. (video)
  • @wideawake_media
  • @TomFitton
  • @Villgecrazylady
  • Why is this not a MUCH bigger story? As @icu_luci noted in another post, pay attention to the woman shrieking nonstop too. Look at how Zinn drops to his knees repeatedly to slow the walk down. Eventually requiring 3 people to walk him. Coordinated chaos. (video)
  • @DC_Draino
  • @Bannons_WarRoom
  • @nicksortor
  • @VigilantFox
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 34.25 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.59 -.09%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 82.9 -.5%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.07% -2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.6 -1.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.35%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.51%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.65 -.12%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.07% +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.96% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.1 -2.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.2 +.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.9 -.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +5.5% -2.8 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.71 +.17:  Growth Rate +11.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.95 +.26: Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 -.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.04 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 52.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% -10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.1% +1.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.76 +4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 91.0% (+16.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 86.6%(+17.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -140 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) AI/Innovation -2.2% 2) Disk Drives -1.8% 3) Road & Rail -1.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • JOBY, SLG, ARW, VCEL, UBER, MANU and DEC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FLG 2) CNK 3) ROIV 4) LAZR 5) LDI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HUIZ 2) MANU 3) RICK 4) RDW 5) SMLR
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) IYW 2) XLP 3) XLV 4) ARKW 5) SOXX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Electrification +3.5% 2) Alt Energy +2.4% 3) Banks +1.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • LYFT, BGTL, OPEN, QBTS, BHVN, BAND, GRRR, ROIV, SOC, PSN, ORKA, BIDU, WDAY, CGON, QFIN, GSAT, KSPI, PLAY, ACMR, RGTI, BE, COCO, SKYT, BRZE, PCVX, KC, GDS, ENVA, SATS, ZG, MRVL, Z, DRD, TSEM, CNTA, CHA, INFY, ZK, ANAB, RITM, ACVA, TRU, NBHC, PDD, SEI and  HDB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) NUVB 2) LAZR 3) PLUG 4) HOUS 5) ABR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) FGNX 2) NFE 3) LYFT 4) BE 5) ROIV
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) ITA 2) BAI 3) SMH 4) XRT 5) MAGS
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (DRI)/2.00
  • (FDS)/4.13 
After the Close: 
  • (FDX)/3.63
  • (LEN)/2.10 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 240K versus 263K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1950K versus 1939K prior.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 1.9 versus -.3 in Aug. 

10:00 am EST

  • The Leading Index for Aug. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.1% decline in July. 

4:00 pm EST

  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for July. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The CDC Vaccine Meeting, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, DA Davidson Industrials/Services Conference, (AS) investor day, (KFY) annual meeting and the (TTWO) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 +.1
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 67.4% of Issues Advancing, 29.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .91 -21.6% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$110.2M
  • 115 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
  • 61.3% (+2.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 67.1 +4.4
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 82.2 +.9%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.4 -.8%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 163.2 -1.0%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 19.2 +17.2%
  • Vix 16.6 +1.5%
  • Total Put/Call .80 +5.3%