Sunday, September 21, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge  
  • @GatewayPundit
  • @FoxNews  
  • @MarioNawful
  • EXCLUSIVE | PBD: CHARLIE KIRK LIKELY TURNED DOWN NETANYAHU. While he's not convinced anyone should point fingers at Israel, @patrickbetdavid believes you may as well flip a coin on the question of whether Netanyahu offered Turning Point $150 million to make Charlie Kirk an ambassador of Israeli interests. When was the offer allegedly made? just a month before he was assassinated. "Charlie didn't want to go back to Israel. Israel invited him. He said no to it. Eventually, Bibi even offered $150 million to maybe have Charlie give more pro-Israel messages around the world." (video)
  • VIETNAM SHUTS DOWN MILLIONS OF BANK ACCOUNTS OVER BIOMETRIC ID RULES. Vietnam just closed more than 86 million bank accounts because owners didn’t sign up for new biometric ID rules that require face scans to use banking services. The government says it’s all about fighting fraud and money laundering, after police caught a gang using fake scans to move $39 million. Now anyone making transfers over $379 has to pass a face scan, and bigger transactions always need biometric checks. Foreigners living in Vietnam are also caught up, with some having to fly back just to keep their accounts alive. Some people warn this isn’t just about security but could be the start of intense financial surveillance. Is Vietnam being used as a testing ground for what many are now calling the New Banking Order?
  • @Breaking911
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @newstart_2024 
  • @Resist_CBDC
  • @MDBreathe
  • @MarinaMedvin
  • @Nicksortor
  • @VigilantFox
  • @HealthRanger
  • @wideawake_media
  • @Rothbard1776
  • Call me “insane” if you want to, but the explanation for the lack of an exit wound in the assassination of Charlie Kirk with a high-powered 30-06 rifle is extremely hard to believe. According to one of the surgeons:
  • @C_3C_3
  • @MichelleMaxwell
  • Breaking news out of Virginia, and it’s the kind of news that should make every Republican’s heart race with pride! The numbers are in, and they are stunning: conservative, Republican-leaning counties are shattering expectations in early voting, leaving Democrat strongholds in the dust. In Dinwiddie County, turnout is soaring to a jaw-dropping 82%. Goochland is not far behind at 72%. Hanover—rock solid conservative territory—is holding strong at 62%. These aren’t just numbers on a page. They are proof of a movement, proof of energy, and proof that the Republican grassroots is more alive and determined than ever. Now let’s look at the other side.
  • @dom_lucre
  • BREAKING: Governor Gavin Newsome announced through his press office that he is suspending Kid Rock from being able to perform in Golden State California despite Liberals claiming that Disney removing Jimmy Kimmel is unfair. This is an active politician banning the rights of an American citizen. Liberals cry victim as they strike you. Newsom “BECAUSE OF HIS HORRIFIC MUSIC, CALIFORNIA WILL INDEFINITELY SUSPEND KID ROCK FROM PERFORMING IN THE GOLDEN STATE. YOU’RE WELCOME! — GCN”.
  • @Catturd2
  • @Villgecrazylady
  • @BasedMikeLee 
  • @EssexPR
  • @ssongpinganq
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @toobaffled
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 +3.75 basis points(new series).
  • China Sovereign CDS 35.75 +2.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.24% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.0 -.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.14% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.8 +.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.
  • S&P 500 futures -.16%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, September 20, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (MSGS) and (OPCH).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @MarioNawfal
  • ELON ON FSD: MOST PEOPLE DON’T UNDERSTAND WHAT’S ABOUT TO HAPPEN. “Almost the entire fleet, which will pass 10 million vehicles next year, is capable of full autonomy. So, even without the Cybercab, we still actually have a gigantic fleet that is capable of being autonomous. And the thing about being an autonomous car is that it can be used much more than a car that is not autonomous. A typical passenger vehicle car will be used about 10 hours a week. If you have a car that's a robot car that can drive autonomously, it can now be used potentially for 80, maybe 100 hours a week. (video)
  • BREAKING: U.S. COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER WARNS OF AL QAEDA THREAT. The U.S. National Counterterrorism Center has warned that al Qaeda remains an active danger, citing new calls for attacks on the United States. A memo to law enforcement said al Qaeda and its Yemen-based affiliate are seeking to exploit global conflicts and U.S. military involvement to inspire strikes. Officials were urged to avoid posting travel details, hide identification outside work, and bolster security at large gatherings like concerts and sporting events. The 9/11 group, it stressed, still seeks to strike.
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @FoxNews 
  • @GatewayPundit 
  • @TheTranscript_
  • @SStormRedux
  • @HealthRanger
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @newstart_2024
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @IanJaeger29
  • @In2ThinAir
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @amitisinvesting
  • @NicHulscher
  • RFK JR DECLARES WAR ON THE JOURNAL CARTEL: "We're probably going to stop publishing in the Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA and those other journals because they're ALL CORRUPT." Illegal retractions must cease immediately — and justice must be served. (video)
  • @goparlington
  • @BasedSamParker
  • @RogerJStoneJr
  • @Skriptkeeper17
  • @MerissaHansen17
  • @I_Am_JohnCullen
  • @Lancegooden
  • Antifa terrorists in their own words: "No border, no wall, no USA at all." President
    @realDonaldTrump made the right call to designate this radical left-wing group as a terrorist organization! (video)
  • @Next100Baggers
  • @DowdEdward
  • @MDBreathe
  • @DrSimoneGold
  • Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs just issued a sweeping standing order to push Covid shots on every Arizonan—including children as young as 6 months. She’s expanding Pharma’s reach, bypassing doctors, and undermining parental rights. This is medical tyranny—plain and simple.
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Friday, September 19, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 6,658.0 +1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 46,326.0 +1.0%
  • NASDAQ 22,590.6 +2.0%
  • Russell 2000 2,449.8 +2.3%
  • NYSE FANG+ 16,444.5 +2.6%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 248.7 +8.4%
  • Wilshire 5000 65,994.0 +1.1%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,707.0 +1.6%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,993.3 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 879.9 -1.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 260.5 +1.8%
  • NYSE Technology 7,088.5 +4.6%
  • Transports 15,616.0 -.3%
  • Utilities 1,090.0 -1.2%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 98.5 -.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 52.9 +1.5%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 240.87 +.89%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 126.65 +.16%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 581,137 +.20%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 +36.8%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,500 -614
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -11.1 +14.1%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 81,844 -20.1%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,957,115 -1.6%
  • Total Put/Call .73 -7.6%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.19 +1.5%
  • ISE Sentiment 167.0 -2.0
  • NYSE Arms .90 -24.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.9 +.6%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.51 unch.
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.7 +6.6%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .36 +13.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.9 +7.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.6 -1.7%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.7 -1.8%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 24,049.4 -.5%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  84.8 -1.3
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.283 Trillion -.3%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$19.849 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 41.7 +48.9%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 301.2 +.3%
  • Crude Oil 62.70/bbl. +.3%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 197.2 -.7%
  • Natural Gas 2.90 -2.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%
  • Heating Oil 230.0 +.3% 
  • Newcastle Coal 100.9 (1,000/metric ton) +7.8%
  • Gold 3,684.0 +1.0%
  • Silver 43.0 +1.8%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 472.9 -.8%
  • Copper 463.9 -.3%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 338.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,200.0 USD/metric tonne -6.4%
  • CME Lumber  568.5 -3.4%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,367.5 -2.0%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% +.2 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.4 -3.7 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.26 -2.2%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 327.7.0 +51.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 +15.0%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $206.0 Billion($1,279.50 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) -.8% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.03 +.88:  Growth Rate +11.9% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.6 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 487.96 +2.34: Growth Rate +19.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 33.5 +.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.6 -5.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.7 +4.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.7 -4.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 91.9%(+12.9 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.75-4.0%, 8.1%(-7.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.25-4.5% on 10/29
  • US Dollar Index 97.63 +.02%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,851.8 +.33%
  • Bitcoin/USD 115,603.0 -.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 196.2 +.3%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 -.07%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 55.75 +5.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.14% +8.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.561 Trillion +.04%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.652 Billion -2.6%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.3 +.7%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 189.1 -3.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 79.0 -2.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.0 +1.8%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.4 -12.0%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 126.5 -4.5%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 74.5 -2.3%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.0 +12.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.4%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 125.6 +.3%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.7% -10.0 basis points
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.0% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.70 -2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +2.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -14.0 basis points +22.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.5 +.25 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 47.3 -1.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 196.0 -2.3
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 223.0 +2.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.43 -1.0%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 116.6 -3.3%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 140.9 +.5%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 123.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 588.0 -1.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .50 +1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.8% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,382.5B -1.3%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 240,000 -.31%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.8 +8.6%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.41% -13.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 386,100 +29.7%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.5% -10.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +7.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $159.0M +65.9%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.20/gallon +.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,205.0 +3.7%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $1,913.0/40 ft Box -6.4%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,120.2 -.5%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 60.0 +26.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 68.4 +7.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 282,930 +11.6%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,788,214 +38.1% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 53.0% +5.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +3.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value -.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Alt Energy +11.7%
  • Computer Hardware +6.2%
  • Electrification +5.5%
  • Software +4.2%
  • Semis +3.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Airlines -1.6%
  • Insurance -1.7%
  • REITs -1.8%
  • Homebuilding -2.8%
  • Education -4.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (76)
  • BHF, QUBT, OKLO, NNE, SMR, NEGG, LTBR, PONY, RGTI, WYFI, HRTG, UMAC, LEU, SYM, HMY, JOBY, ASTS, ARQQ, QBTS, B, BKSY, WRD, SERV, CCCX, SERV, FVRR, IREN, QS, MGNI, CMCL, TIC, ATEX, DRD, CRNC, MUX, UUUU, SSYS, CDE, PL, DAVE, ES, IONQ, MNDY, SA, LMND, EAF, SKE, KMTS, HOND, EH, SSRM, UBER, FNV, IRS, NBIS, AEM, SKYT, AAON, FLR, ADUR, IRS, SEI, AAON, CENX, CCJ, AMGN, SOUN, BVN, MAMA, FTNT, PLTR, AMPX, CRWV, BE, AAPL and SNDK
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)
  • CBRL, LPLA, FDS, LEN, EPSM, ORLA, HRI, HUM, WPP, CART, VSEC, HESM, DXCM and SCHL
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.51 -.18%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.13% +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.97% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour -2.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.6 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.7 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.7 +.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) -.8% -6.5 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.03 +.20:  Growth Rate +11.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 487.17 +.79: Growth Rate +19.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +63.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 55.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.4% -1.9 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 80.6% (-1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.1%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +85 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +42 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +156 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long