Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @YaakovRenewed
  • @DissidentClint
  • @nicksortor
  • @BRICSinfo
  • @ABridgen
  • @disclosetv
  • @FreeBeacon
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @rawsalerts
  • @FFT1776
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +2.0% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 -5.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 48.25 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
  • Crude Oil 88.06/bbl. -4.6% 
  • Gold 4,621.1 USD/t oz. +4.2%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.48 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 100.1 +.4%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.35% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.54% -2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.3 -2.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.0%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.61%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.64%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Escalating Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, AI Software Cannibalization Concerns, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.7 -.1%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.1 -1.1% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .42 +3.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.3 +1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 189.4 +.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 78.9 -1.2% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.4 +.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.9 +.9
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.2 +3.7
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.0 -1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 500 reporting) +103.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 333.61 +.18:  Growth Rate +20.1% unch., P/E 19.7 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.1% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 530.45 +n/a: Growth Rate +33.3% +n/a percentage point, P/E 27.2 -n/a
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .16 +4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 46.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 162.8 +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.0 euros/megawatt-hour -4.7% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5% unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.0% -.3 percentage point
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.38% +3.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.14 +19.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 82.8% (-8.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 77.6%(-10.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,750 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +92 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +405 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Software -4.2% 2) Computer Services -3.1% 3) Cyber Security -2.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AUPH, MU, NAD, BIPC, RELX, BR, ASGI, AGMB, CLB, ABVX, SAP, DG, SHOP, PLTR, DOCU, SSNC, BL, FICO, VSCO, SRRK, WSO, CRM, ESTA, ADMA, FUBO, TASK, XNCR, TTD, ZS, FIG, WING, ALOY, PL, CHYM, KTOS, TEAM, LMRI, RARE, HUBS, APGE, CELH, HSAI, AXON, EL, COIN, ISSC, LUNR, MDA, FRPT, CRCL and CNXC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CDNS 2) TECH 3) JEF 4) IBRX 5) KPTI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) LENZ 2) IBRX 3) RARE 4) IT 5) TTD
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) KBWB 2) GDXJ 3) SILJ 4) XLE 5) SIXG

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Coal +4.4% 2) Energy +3.2% 3) Agriculture +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MRLN, FOUR, NTGR, AAOI, ACLS, VECO, HCC, BTU, AHCO, FORM, PLAB, AMR, DEC, GLW, PLAB, LITE, SKM, CNR, MEOH, LXU, NGL, IPI, PBF, DXYZ, FN, LFUS, MOD, LE, ECO, CF, MPC, BWLP, APA, CNTA, DELL, KRUS, AXTI, METC, COHR, FMC, FRO, TRMD, VIAV, MTRX, LI, DRVN, WTTR, SNEX, PLXS and LNG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SATL 2) FF 3) KPTI 4) WRD 5) PRMW 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NTGR 2) FOUR 3) GLW 4) FEED 5) DK
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) XLI 4) KRE 5) IGV
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CHWY)/.09
  • (CTAS)/1.24
  • (KC)/-.60
  • (PAYX)/1.67
  • (PDD)/20.90
  • (WGO)/.24
After the Close: 
  • (FUL)/.55
  • (JEF)/.89
  • (MLKN)/.45
  • (WS)/.46 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • The Import Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.2% gain in Jan.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Jan.
  • The Current Account Deficit for 4Q is estimated at -$208.5B versus -$226.4B in 3Q. 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -190,000 barrels versus a +6,156,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,432,500 barrels versus a -5,436,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,593,330 barrels versus a -2,527,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.56% versus a +.6% gain prior. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Miran speaking, 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (GNRC) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -3.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.1 +.5
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
  • 55.8% of Issues Advancing, 42.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .6 -21.7%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$245.8M
  • 71 New 52-Week Highs, 90 New Lows
  • 47.6% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 37.2 -4.3
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 23.0% -19.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 11.0% unch.
  • US forces enter Iran by April 30th 54.0% +9.0 percentage points
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 56.0% -8.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.0 +.7%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 +2.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 533.0 +5.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.2 -.3%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 137.0 -1.8%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 16.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 17.0 -26.6%
  • Vix 26.4 +.8%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -15.2%