Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -1.8% 2) Computer Networking -1.1% 3) Computer Hardware -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LLYVK, PRAX, ALOY, T, CRWD, XZO, BRKR, BTSG, CELH, PUK, BRUN, LCII, SKM, AVEX, CMCO, TAC, OCS, FIVE, AVGO, CIEN, NTSK and PVH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) CDNS 3) XEL 4) CMG 5) BHP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PVH 2) MU 3) T 4) CIEN 5) AVGO

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) IGV 4) XLE 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +3.5% 2) Pharma +3.5% 3) Defense +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LPTH, BOT, RDW, VERA, OSCR, NTLA, LQDA, TSAT, PGY, PSNL, UMAC, INOD, AAOI, BEAM, ABVX, NVCR, TEM, BAND, FTRE, GENB, PLSE, NN, OUST, CRSP, CLPT, ADPT, GRAL, RCAT, FTK, MANU, RDDT, M, FLNC, BKSY, KMTS, BLLN, MPLT, HNGE, AMG, DXYZ, GKOS, TATT, VOYG, DQ, DSGX, GRRR, BLSH, BB, SDGR, TE, TXG, MRVL, MRP, OTF, OWL, VECO, PINS, BEN, OWL, RELX, STRL, KRMN, CDNA, TWLO, CCI, LLY, MDT, PUBM, AUPH, SOLV, ANIP, DHR, PAHC, DFTX, SAP, TOYO, JAZZ, CLYM, ASYS, JBIO, DFTX, GOOG, ASYS, CLYM, PPC, ASST, PCAR, QBTS, PKE, AUB, WSE, RGTI, IRTC and TFC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) PRMW 3) DHR 4) CIEN 5) CRSP 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LFTO 2) IOVA 3) AUUD 4) CXAI 5) NVRI

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) DRAM 2) SOXX 3) XLU 4) XLK 5) SKYY

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABM)/.88
• (GIII)/-.30 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for May is estimated at 85K versus 115K in April.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for May is estimated at +.3% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• The Unemployment Rate for May is estimated at 4.3% versus 4.3% in April. 

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for April is estimated to fall to $17.750M versus $24.855M in March. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (AXSM) annual meeting, (GRMN) annual meeting, (YELP) annual meeting, (GOOG) annual meeting, (ABNB) annual meeting and the (LGND) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 +.3
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 69.0% of Issues Advancing, 28.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.05 +5.0%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$174.0M
  
• 82 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
• 53.30% (+3.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 63.5 +3.6

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% unch.
• Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 46.0% -8.0 percentage points
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 25.0% +2.0 percentage points 
• US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 57.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 17.0% -1.0 percentage point

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 124.5 -.3%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 91.0 +5.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% +7.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 432.5 +1.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 264.0 +.3%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 162.6 +.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 55.0 (NEUTRAL) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.2 -20.1%
• Vix 15.4 -4.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -1.3%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 +1.5 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 40.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.60 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%. 
• Crude Oil 95.20/bbl. -.9% 
• Gold 4,488.0 USD/t oz. +.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.57 -.10%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.18 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.2 -.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.48% -2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.87% unch. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.36%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.36%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.55%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.0 +1.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.6 -3.3% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.34 +1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.5 +1.9%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 150.4 +1.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 54.3 +1.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.8 +3.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.1 +5.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.20 +14.3

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.0 +1.5
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(488 of 500 reporting) +27.6% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 361.72 +.37:  Growth Rate +23.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 890.79 +.84: Growth Rate +125.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.6 -.3 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.19 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 40.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 187.7 -1.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.5%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.3% -1.2 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.49% +5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.80 +8.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 90.2% (-1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 72.2%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -115 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -150 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +16 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long