Monday, May 23, 2005

Stocks High Mid-day as Long-Term Rates Drop

Indices
S&P 500 1,194.90 +.48%
DJIA 10,535.75 +.61%
NASDAQ 2,058.84 +.61%
Russell 2000 613.83 +.73%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,785.38 +.48%
S&P Barra Growth 578.46 +.54%
S&P Barra Value 611.92 +.41%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.14 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 729.00 +1.30%
Morgan Stanley Technology 479.97 +.80%
Transports 3,644.39 +.64%
Utilities 363.68 -.33%
Put/Call .83 -16.16%
NYSE Arms .86 -25.42%
Volatility(VIX) 12.99 -1.14%
ISE Sentiment 192.00 +34.27%
US Dollar 86.41 -.25%
CRB 296.79 +1.18%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 48.70 +.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 139.10 -1.98%
Natural Gas 6.37 +.58%
Heating Oil 136.20 -.39%
Gold 416.90 -.19%
Base Metals 120.29 +.59%
Copper 138.85 +.98%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.05% -1.63%

Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +1.70%
Gold & Silver +1.36%
Steel +1.21%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -.17%
Gaming -.25%
Airlines -.68%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Homebuilding, Internet, Wireless and Computer longs. I exited a Software long this morning and added INSP long, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. I am using a $32 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is positive, given last week’s gains and the morning bounce in energy prices. I expect US stocks to rise modestly into the close on short-covering, lower long-term interest rates, declining energy prices and strength in the Tech sector.

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