Sunday, May 22, 2005

Weekly Outlook

There are some important economic reports and a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - None of note
Tues. - Existing Home Sales, Minutes of May 3 FOMC Meeting
Wed. - Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales
Thur. - Preliminary 1Q GDP, Preliminary 1Q Consumption, Initial Jobless Claims, Help Wanted Index
Fri. - Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Campbell Soup(CPB)
Tues. - Computer Sciences(CSC), GameStop(GME), Medtronic(MDT), Network Appliance(NTAP), Williams-Sonoma(WSM)
Wed. - Autozone(AZO), Dollar Tree(DLTR)
Thur. - Chico's FAS(CHS), Computer Assoc.(CA), Costco(COST), Dollar General(DG), HJ Heinz(HJZ), Toll Brothers(TOL)
Fri. - None of note

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - UBS Specialty Pharma Conference, Fed's Santomero speaks
Tue. - Oppenheimer Wireless Conference, UBS Software & IT Conference, UBS Global Oil and Gas Conference, UBS Global Pharma Conference, Fed's Moskow speaks
Wed. - Goldman Sachs Internet Conference, Needham Biotech Conference, UBS Software and IT Conference, UBS Global Oil and Gas Conference, Fed's Bernanke speaks, Fed's Guynn speaks
Thur. - Banc of America Aerospace & Defense Conference, UBS Global Oil & Gas Conference, Goldman Sachs Internet Conference, Needham Biotech Conference, Fed's Guynn speaks, Fed's Moskow speaks
Fri. - Fed's Ferguson speaks, Fed's Yellen speakes

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on short-covering, bargain-hunting, more optimism and better-than-expected economic reports. Better-than-expected Durable Goods Orders, Better-than-expected Consumer Confidence and an upward revision to 1Q GDP should boost sentiment regarding the economy this week. As I have stated previously, I expect the Fed to continue making relatively hawkish statements until closer to the June meeting. However, I will closely monitor comments for hints of the coming policy shift I expect. My trading indicators are giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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