Monday, May 02, 2005

Stocks Mixed Mid-day on Rising Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,155.54 -.11%
DJIA 10,197.61 +.05%
NASDAQ 1,917.89 -.20%
Russell 2000 579.72 +.06%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,361.60 -.05%
S&P Barra Growth 558.73 -.03%
S&P Barra Value 593.02 -.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 576.98 +.32%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 697.32 -.02%
Morgan Stanley Technology 435.50 -.25%
Transports 3,460.34 +.98%
Utilities 372.23 +.20%
Put/Call .99 -2.94%
NYSE Arms .95 +11.62%
Volatility(VIX) 15.63 +2.09%
ISE Sentiment 141.00 +4.44%
US Dollar 84.55 +.14%
CRB 302.40 -.44%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 50.65 +1.77%
Unleaded Gasoline 148.00 -1.08%
Natural Gas 6.61 +.46%
Heating Oil 143.70 +.78%
Gold 430.90 -1.19%
Base Metals 124.97 +1.10%
Copper 145.50 -.61%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.19% -.14%

Leading Sectors
Insurance +1.46%
Oil Service +1.43%
Oil Tankers +1.32%

Lagging Sectors
Papers -.74%
Steel -.88%
I-Banks -2.56%

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my Computer and Internet longs are being offset by losses in my Oil Tankers shorts. I took profits in some of my trading longs this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is mildly positive, considering Friday’s gains, rising energy prices and the market’s oversold state. Ried, Thunberg's weekly index measuring the outlook for U.S. government debt rose for the first time in a month last week to 41 from 40. Readings below 50 mean investors continue to anticipate a rise in yields by the end of June. This reading continues to be bullish for bonds. As well, 70% of their survey's participants expect the Fed to refer to signs of sluggish economic growth in their policy statement. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close as short-covering and bargain-hunting offset apprehensions ahead of the Fed meeting and rising energy prices.

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