Thursday, December 01, 2005

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher on Increasing Optimism, Strong Economic Growth, Decelerating Inflation

Indices
S&P 500 1,264.67 +1.22%
DJIA 10,912.57 +.99%
NASDAQ 2,267.17 +1.54%
Russell 2000 690.21 +1.91%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,659.74 +1.31%
S&P Barra Growth 605.16 +1.14%
S&P Barra Value 655.12 +1.29%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 593.37 +.90%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 784.87 +1.38%
Morgan Stanley Technology 538.00 +1.71%
Transports 4,157.93 +1.07%
Utilities 403.27 +.78%
Put/Call .82 -2.38%
NYSE Arms .81 -50.99%
Volatility(VIX) 11.24 -6.80%
ISE Sentiment 155.00 -6.06%
US Dollar 91.82 +.27%
CRB 320.71 +2.05%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.56 +.15%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.91 +.42%
Natural Gas 13.04 +.11%
Heating Oil 173.85 -.01%
Gold 507.70 +.28%
Base Metals 148.99 +2.45%
Copper 199.80 -.08%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.51% +.70%

Leading Sectors
Steel +4.23%
Semis +4.21%
Oil Service +3.36%

Lagging Sectors
Banks +.70%
Biotech +.70%
Defense +.62%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on PFGC and UTX.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US economy will grow an above-average 3.5% this year and 3.4% next year, according to estimates by the Bush administration’s top economists.
- Goldman Sachs Group, the Carlyle Group and Riverstone Holdings are putting up $500 million to back a new oil and natural-gas explorer led by the former president of Unocal Corp.
- Former President Clinton said the US should restructure how its troops are deployed in Iraq without setting a firm timetable for a withdrawal.
- Shares of US Steel and AK Steel rose on speculation they may be targets for takeover by the loser in the bidding for Canadian steelmaker Dofasco.
- Crude oil, heating oil and gas rose for a second day on speculation that colder weather would boost demand.

Globe and Mail:
- The elderly of New Orleans and its suburbs were at greatest risk after Hurricane Katrina; about 60% of the 623 victims identified so far were older than 60, citing census and state data.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Retail longs, Computer longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, every sector rose and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was very positive as the major averages finished sharply higher with strong breadth and volume. Every sector I follow was positive. Moreover, the 10-year Treasury note yield finished only slightly higher, notwithstanding good economic data, stock gains and the rise in energy prices. Today’s action looked very much like a function of p/e multiple expansion as the irrational pessimism that has enveloped the US stock market since the bursting of the bubble in 2000 continues to lift. I expect DJIA 11,000 to give way within the next 10 days.

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