Wednesday, December 07, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day as Long-term Rates Bounce and Housing Worries Persist

Indices
S&P 500 1,256.14 -.59%
DJIA 10,794.58 -.57%
NASDAQ 2,248.80 -.53%
Russell 2000 682.41 -.75%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,574.46 -.55%
S&P Barra Growth 601.90 -.53%
S&P Barra Value 650.31 -.65%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 591.12 -.34%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 778.71 -.72%
Morgan Stanley Technology 531.82 -.39%
Transports 4,116.81 -.27%
Utilities 402.17 -.46%
Put/Call .81 +3.85%
NYSE Arms .99 +20.46%
Volatility(VIX) 12.08 +4.86%
ISE Sentiment 202.00 +8.02%
US Dollar 91.94 +.55%
CRB 325.20 +.28%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.72 -.32%
Unleaded Gasoline 158.00 -.22%
Natural Gas 13.87 +2.75%
Heating Oil 174.50 -1.52%
Gold 518.10 +.84%
Base Metals 152.89 +1.18%
Copper 203.10 +2.21%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.51% +.66%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +1.48%
Airlines +.29%
Retail +.01%

Lagging Sectors
Banks -1.21%
HMOs -1.76%
Homebuilders -2.16%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my Medical longs and Retail longs offset losses in my Computer longs and Internet longs. I covered a Steel short and added IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action is negative considering yesterday’s afternoon sell-off and a drop in the price of oil. The EIA reported crude inventories rose 2.72 million barrels vs. estimates of a 1.9 million barrel drawdown. Gasoline supplies rose 2.74 million barrels vs. estimates of a 1.05 million barrel rise. Distillate inventories rose 2.73 million barrels vs. estimates of a 1.75 million barrel rise. Finally, refinery utilization rose 1.31% vs. estimates of a 0.5% increase. These numbers are very bearish for oil considering the time of the year. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close as higher long-term rates and worries over the housing sector offset lower oil prices and short-covering.

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