Friday, December 02, 2005

Stocks Slightly Lower Mid-day on Profit-taking and Rising Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,264.03 -.05%
DJIA 10,881.59 -.28%
NASDAQ 2,267.33 +.01%
Russell 2000 687.71 -.37%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,649.06 -.08%
S&P Barra Growth 605.56 +.07%
S&P Barra Value 654.01 -.16%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 593.92 +.09%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 780.85 -.51%
Morgan Stanley Technology 536.32 -.31%
Transports 4,130.81 -.65%
Utilities 402.52 -.18%
Put/Call .75 -8.54%
NYSE Arms 1.05 +30.88%
Volatility(VIX) 11.07 -1.51%
ISE Sentiment 241.00 +55.48%
US Dollar 91.98 +.17%
CRB 323.21 +.77%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.45 +1.51%
Unleaded Gasoline 161.25 +3.19%
Natural Gas 13.71 +5.24%
Heating Oil 178.10 +2.43%
Gold 507.00 +.14%
Base Metals 149.28 +.19%
Copper 197.80 -1.08%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.51% +.09%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.46%
Papers +.89%
Semis +.82%

Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.63%
Wireless -1.11%
Broadcasting -.94%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Airline longs and Medical longs. I have not traded this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Overall, today’s market action is neutral considering the bounce in oil and yesterday’s gains. The Fed's Yellen is now saying that the Fed is discussing the wording of forward-looking language and is discussing "removing accommodation" language. She also said it is unlikely the end of tightening cycle is at hand and that the core pce is "essentially compatible" with Fed's goal. I would expect investors to cheer these statements as it shows recent strong data have not deterred the Fed from contemplating a "pause.” I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close as short-covering more than offsets the rise in energy prices.

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