- Continuing Claims rose to 2439K versus estimates of 2440K and 2421K prior.
- Leading Indicators for March fell .1% versus estimates of unchanged and a downwardly revised .5% decline in February.
BOTTOM LINE: First-time claims for US unemployment benefits fell more than forecast last week and the number of Americans on jobless rolls stayed close to a five-year low, signaling a strengthening labor market, Bloomberg said. The 4-week moving average of continuing claims fell to 2.44 million, the lowest since Feb. 3, 2001. The unemployment rate among those eligible to receive benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, remained at 1.9%. I continue to expect the labor market to remain healthy without generating substantial unit labor cost increases.
An index of US leading indicators fell for a second month in March, suggesting the slowdown in housing and record energy prices will chip away at economic growth,
Bloomberg said. This is the first back-to-back decline since February and March 2001. Leading Indicators historically forecast economic activity about 3-6 months out. The coincident indicators component, a measure of current economic activity, rose .2% for the month. I continue to believe US economic growth peaked for the year during the first quarter and will head back to average levels through year-end.
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