Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Energy Worries and Continued Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is about even into the final hour as gains in my Index shorts and Energy-related shorts are offsetting losses in my Semi longs, Networking longs and Medical longs. I added to my (QQQQ), (EEM) and (IWM) shorts today, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, every sector is falling and volume is heavy. I am seeing some signs of stabilization the tech sector; however, there is still quite a bit of short-term complacency given today's losses. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.30% year over year last week vs. a 1.7% rise the prior week. This is the strongest reading since the first week of February. The long-term average is a gain of around 2.5%. I continue to expect retail to perform more in line with the market going forward. I also still expect stock selection within the sector to become even more important as consumer spending is likely in the initial stages of slowing to average levels. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels as more economically sensitive companies see further profit-taking.

No comments: