Monday, April 24, 2006

Stocks Slightly Lower Heading into Final Hour on Worries Over Slowing Growth

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Medical longs and Energy-related shorts. I added a (TLT) long and an (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is about average. It continues to appear investors are viewing the recent parabolic rise in many commodity prices as a future hindrance to economic growth, rather than a catalyst for accelerating inflation. Weaker housing data should also prompt lower long-term rates. With 1Q economic growth poised to come in around 4.5% during 1Q and a media frenzy over the recent rise in commodity prices, long-term rates are likely near an intermediate-term peak. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on lower energy prices and long-term rates.

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