Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Manufacturing Surges, Service Sector Remains Strong

- Factory Orders for March rose 4.2% versus estimates of a 3.7% gain and a .4% rise in February.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for April rose to 63.0 versus estimates of 59.4 and a reading of 60.5 in March.
BOTTOM LINE: Orders placed with US factories rose 4.2% in March, the most in 10 months, as businesses bought equipment and parts to meet the needs of a surging economy, Bloomberg reported. Excluding transports, orders rose 2.2%, the most since August. The rise was led by a 71% jump in bookings for aircraft. Orders for capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, gained 3.9% versus a .6% February decline. Inventories for factories rose .7% versus a .4% decline the prior month. The inventory-to-shipments ratio remained at 1.17 months. I continue to expect manufacturing to moderate back to average levels as inventory rebuilding subsides and demand slows.

Service industries in the US grew faster than expected in April, as companies geared up to meet greater demand spurred by a strengthening labor market, Bloomberg said. The new orders component of the index rose to 64.6 from 59.5 in March. The employment component of the index rose to 56.5 from 54.6 the prior month. The prices paid component rose to 70.5 from 60.5 the prior month. A strong job market is helping to propel consumer spending even as energy prices rise. I continue to believe a slowing housing market will send consumer spending back to average rates over the coming months.

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