Thursday, May 04, 2006

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs as Oil Falls Below $70 and Long-term Rates Stabilize

Indices
S&P 500 1,312.25 +.34%
DJIA 11,438.86 +.34%
NASDAQ 2,323.90 +.87%
Russell 2000 774.72 +.91%
Wilshire 5000 13,288.63 +.41%
S&P Barra Growth 607.43 +.27%
S&P Barra Value 703.00 +.40%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 611.13 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 875.97 +1.04%
Morgan Stanley Technology 548.09 +.47%
Transports 4,908.24 +3.34%
Utilities 402.12 +.01%
Put/Call .62 -30.34%
NYSE Arms 1.03 -11.40%
Volatility(VIX) 11.86 -1.08%
ISE Sentiment 160.00 -26.61%
US Dollar 85.84 unch.
CRB 349.89 -.66%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 70.47 +.76%
Unleaded Gasoline 201.10 +.82%
Natural Gas 7.10 +2.77%
Heating Oil 195.00 +.63%
Gold 681.70 +.77%
Base Metals 229.56 +5.98%
Copper 348.50 +.16%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.15% +.21%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +2.64%
Disk Drives +2.30%
Steel +2.12%

Lagging Sectors
Software -.42%
Oil Service -.36%
Energy -.58%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Bear Stearns:
- Rated GSL Outperform, target $55.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The House of Representatives passed legislation today that would tighten security at US seaports, requiring more “dirty” and nuclear bomb detectors and background checks on dockside workers.
- Taiwanese lenders are funding companies rejected by bond and equity investors as the banks seek corporate clients to offset rising consumer defaults.
- Microsoft(MSFT) agreed to buy Massive, a closely held seller of video-game ads, to gain early entry into a new ad market.
- Seven Senators from both sides of the aisle responded to surging gas prices with a proposal to reduce US oil consumption through conservation.
- Crude oil fell more than $2/bbl. as US oil inventories approach 9-year highs and gasoline demand is waning.
- A further increase in oil prices may hurt global economic growth more than the recent rise to $70 a barrel, NY Fed Reserve Bank President Geithner said in an interview published on Business Week’s Web site.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Retail longs, Semi longs, Medical longs and Energy-related shorts. I added (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, almost every sector rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was bullish. I want to see the bond market’s reaction to tomorrow’s likely strong employment data before shifting market exposure further. Muted losses in energy-related stocks, notwithstanding the recent sharp pullback in oil prices, show complacency is high in the sector.

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