Monday, July 17, 2006

Stocks Finish Mostly Lower on Weakness in Commodity Shares

S&P 500 1,234.49 -.14%
DJIA 10,747.36 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,037.72 +.02%
Russell 2000 677.69 -.52%
Wilshire 5000 12,373.32 -.24%
S&P Barra Growth 570.36 -.06%
S&P Barra Value 662.56 -.21%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 601.10 -.03%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 769.35 -.78%
Morgan Stanley Technology 459.13 +.04%
Transports 4,570.83 -.43%
Utilities 419.11 +.24%
Put/Call 1.07 -13.71%
NYSE Arms 1.04 -11.73%
Volatility(VIX) 18.64 +3.27%
ISE Sentiment 131.00 +3.15%
US Dollar 86.98 +1.02%
CRB 347.31 -2.77%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 75.39 +.12%
Unleaded Gasoline 228.60 +.03%
Natural Gas 5.75 -.57%
Heating Oil 202.72 +.39%
Gold 644.50 -1.14%
Base Metals 229.13 -3.20%
Copper 359.00 -.26%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.06% -.04%

Leading Sectors
Restaurants +2.40%
Gaming +.95%
Retail +.93%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -3.08%
Gold & Silver -3.41%
Oil Service -4.42%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Bear Stearns:
- Reiterated Outperform on (UTX).

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
- Copper fell the most in five weeks leading a decline in metals prices, on concern that escalating violence in the Middle East will slow economic growth and curb demand for raw materials.
- Cocoa plunged 16% in London, the biggest one-day decline since at least 1989, on concern that record buying by speculators had inflated prices to unsustainable levels.
- The US dollar surged to the highest level in almost three months against the yen and strengthened versus the euro as investors sought a safe haven from escalating violence in the Middle East.
- Nymex Holdings, owner of the world’s largest energy marketplace, plans to sell $250 million of stock in an IPO as record oil prices and trading sparks interest in energy exchanges.
- Crude oil fell in NY by the most in five weeks, on speculation that Israel may stop its attack on Lebanon within days.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Computer longs, Networking longs and Commodity shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bearish. Given the decline in oil, I would have expected a better showing for the broad market. But the sharp declines in commodity stocks, which many perceive as market leaders, didn't do much damage to the broad market, which is a positive. The fact that the 10-year maintained recent gains, despite a somewhat calmer environment, is also a positive. My intraday measures of investor angst were above average throughout the day. I expect a better performance for stocks tomorrow.

No comments: