Monday, July 17, 2006

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour, Weighed Down by Energy Shares

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Networking longs, Computer longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. Considering the 4%+ losses in energy stocks, the broad market is holding up well. I am starting to wonder if Iran is to oil what Hurricane Katrina was to natural gas. A number of market-leading stocks are posting gains today. I still expect a calming of Middle Eastern tensions, increased Fed "pause" speculation and mostly positive earnings reports to spur a snapback rally over the next few days. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower energy prices and stable long-term rates.

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