Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour as Commodities Weaken Further and Long Rates Rise

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour as gains in my Commodity shorts are mostly offsetting losses in my Retail and Internet longs. I added to my (EEM), (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts this morning and then took profits, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is about average. Gold is breaking back below its 50-day moving average today, falling another $21.90. It has declined almost $50 in less than two days. This action is very bearish for the metal considering the Middle East situation and today's PPI. I continue to believe Gold, copper and oil are all in the process of forming major tops. Oil will likely continue to trade at very inflated levels into hurricane season, at which time I suspect it will finally begin falling substantially. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and lower energy prices ahead of Bernanke’s speech tomorrow.

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