Wednesday, July 19, 2006

CPI Decelerates, Housing Starts Slow Further

- The Consumer Price Index for June rose .2% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .4% gain in May.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for June rose .3% versus estimates of a .2% gain and a .3% rise in May.
- Housing Starts for June fell to 1850K versus estimates of 1900K and 1953K prior.
- Building Permits for June fell to 1862K versus estimates of 1920K and 1946K prior.
BOTTOM LINE: Consumer prices in the US increased for a sixth straight month, Bloomberg reported. Energy prices declined .9% in June versus a 2.4% gain in May. The 10-year yield is falling substantially from morning highs. I continue to believe inflation worries have peaked for the year.

US homebuilders started work on fewer homes in June as higher mortgage rates discouraged buyers, reinforcing expectations of slowing growth, Bloomberg said. Starts fell 12% in the Northeast, 4% in the South and 10% in the West. Starts rose 3% in the Midwest. I continue to believe mortgage rates have peaked for the year and that housing is still in the process of slowing to more healthy sustainable levels.

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