S&P 500 1,427.99 +.35%
DJIA 12,533.80 +.45%
NASDAQ 2,431.41 +.01%
Russell 2000 785.38 +.95%
Wilshire 5000 14,333.19 +.43%
Russell 1000 Growth 562.58 +.23%
Russell 1000 Value 820.34 +.49%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 709.71 +.21%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 921.14 +1.04%
Morgan Stanley Technology 556.86 -.22%
Transports 4,827.36 +.30%
Utilities 449.52 +.48%
Put/Call .89 -6.32%
NYSE Arms .94 -28.26%
Volatility(VIX) 10.34 -3.99%
ISE Sentiment 137.0 -10.46%
US Dollar 84.66 -.44%
CRB 296.65 +2.30%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.80 +4.22%
Reformulated Gasoline 144.35 +4.95%
Natural Gas 7.63 +4.22%
Heating Oil 157.54 +4.44%
Gold 648.10 +2.21%
Base Metals 230.50 +2.49%
Copper 258.70 +2.27%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.81% +1.02%
Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +4.41%
Steel +4.25%
Oil Service +2.86%
Lagging Sectors
Internet -.80%
Networking -1.15%
Airlines -3.57%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Deutsche Bank:
- Rated (NSR) Buy, target $40.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- President Bush plans to double the size of the country’s emergency oil reserves by 2027, Energy Secretary Bodman said. This would amount to only 100,000 barrels per day or .12% of daily global oil demand. Current global oil demand is 85.7 million barrels per day, however oil is rising $2.27/barrel on the report. Bush will also propose tonight cutting US gasoline consumption by 20% over the next 10 years through a combination of higher vehicle fuel efficiency and greater use of renewable fuels like ethanol.
- Sun Microsystems(SUNW) reported a profit after five quarters of losses and said it received a $700 million investment from KKR. SUNW is rising 8.3% after-hours.
- Citrix Systems(CTXS) reported annual revenue growth of 25%. CTXS is rising 11.2% after-hours.
- DuPont Co.(DD) said supplies of the company’s most profitable variety of corn seed will sell out this year because rising demand for ethanol in North America has spurred increased planting.
- US crude-oil inventories probably rose last week as refiners began maintenance programs, a Bloomberg News survey indicated.
- Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) said fourth-quarter profit dropped 61% after delays in its newest Internet advertising software and costs from employee stock options. YHOO is falling 2.2% in after-hours trading.
- Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) reported a loss of $574 million on expenses tied to its acquisition of ATI Technologies. AMD is falling 4.9% after-hours.
- Lieutenant General David Petraeus said he couldn’t successfully carry out his new mission of leading US forces in Iraq and providing security for Baghdad without the additional 21,500 troops that President Bush plans to send.
- The Colts’ 38-34 win over the New England Patriots for a berth in the Super Bowl drew 46.7 million viewers on CBS, the most-watched American Football Conference championship game in 21 years.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished about even today as gains in my Retail longs, Medical longs and Telecom longs were offset by losses in my Computer longs and Commodity shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was slightly positive today as the advance/decline line finished modestly higher, sector performance was mixed and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Today's overall market action was mildly bullish. Tech lagged, however small-caps and cyclicals outperformed on rising economic optimism. I do believe the economy is accelerating, but not enough to buy deep cyclicals. Oil is $2.46 higher on news of Bush's proposals and a weaker U.S. Dollar. I believe oil bulls are misinterpreting the President’s initiatives. Adding 100,000 barrels per day to the SPR is only equivalent to .12% of current global demand of 85.7 million bpd. Plans to curtail U.S. gasoline consumption by 20% within 10 years would way more than offset that increase in demand for the SPR. I suspect the current rally in energy will prove short-lived as this sinks in. The 10-year yield is finished at 4.81%, rising 4 basis points. I continue to believe it would take a move above 5.25% to result in any meaningful weakness for equity investors. I do not expect that as economic growth is only accelerating modestly and inflation measures are poised to decelerate further. I have heard and read numerous bears insinuate or flat out state that they are the only ones that are bearish, which is one of the really surreal aspects of the current U.S. "negativity bubble." I don't closely follow the recently released UBS survey of investor sentiment that rose to a three-year high. However, its findings are very interesting. Notwithstanding the rise in the headline index, I would hardly call the overall survey "bullish" much less "excessively bullish." Only 37% of those surveyed expect the DJIA to rise this year. Of those 37%, only 11% expect a gain of more than 10%. As well, of the 37% that expect a rise, 22% expect a meager gain of 1%-4%. Finally, 46% expect the DJIA to remain unchanged for the year. I think the fact that the findings of this survey, which began when the bubble was bursting in 2000, are construed as “bullish” is a great example how deep-seated and ingrained the pessimism really is.
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