Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The number of elderly and disabled Americans enrolled in the US government’s prescription drug program rose to 23.9 million this year, a 6.2% increase from last year, Medicare said.
- President Bush said his warnings to Iran about its involvement in Iraq have no hidden message and no hint of a threat to invade the Islamic Republic.
- Japan’s wages unexpectedly fell at the fastest pace in 16 months as companies paid lower winter bonuses, signaling a slump in consumer spending may deepen and prevent the central bank from raising interest rates.
- Hynix Semiconductor, Asia’s second-largest maker of memory chips, posted record quarterly profit as the release of Microsoft’s(MSFT) Windows Vista operating system drove up chip demand and prices.
- Crude oil is falling in NY on speculation that yesterday’s advance was overdone as US supplies will be adequate to meet winter demand and OPEC will refrain from cutting production at a meeting in March.
- China National Petroleum, the nation’s biggest oil company, plans to drill 20% more high-yield horizontal wells this year to increases output.
- Japan’s 2006 gasoline demand fell 1.1%, the first decline in 32 years. Oil products demand fell 3.9%. Oil imports from Saudi Arabia fell 12.4%. Liquefied natural gas imports surged 38% to 5.78 million tons.

Financial Times:
- Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY) hired Lehman Brothers(LEH) to help examine potential takeover bids from companies including Sanofi-Aventis SA.

Edmonton Journal:
- Peace River Oil, a closely held Canadian oil company, plans to spend $2.1 billion on an oil sands project in northwestern Alberta. The investment will double the processing capacity of the Red Deer, Alberta-based company’s Bluesky upgrader to 50,000 barrels of oil a day, including a refinery to make gasoline and diesel.

Xinhua News Agency:
- Chinese shipbuilders produced a record 14.52 million deadweight tons of vessels last year, about a fifth of the world’s total and 20% more than in 2005. More than half the vessels made were large oil tankers, the chairman of the China Assoc. of National Shipbuilding Industry said.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.08%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AGN)/1.02
- (MO)/1.22
- (AH).97
- (AVB)/.64
- (BA)/.98
- (CEG)/.89
- (D)/.78
- (EG)/.55
- (LLY)/.82
- (EOG)/.98
- (EL)/.76
- (EFX)/.52
- (GILD)/.68
- (GOOG)/2.92
- (KFT)/.51
- (JDSU)/.10
- (IR)/.73
- (HLT)/.33
- (HES)/1.12
- (LLL)/1.36
- (MCHP)/.33
- (MUR)/.48
- (NMX)/.33
- (PHM)/-.01
- (SEE)/.90
- (SBUX)/.26
- (STN)/.45
- (STE)/.28
- (TWX)/.22
- (TSCO)/.71
- (VRSN)/.25
- (VMC)/1.02
- (WWW)/.39
- (XEL)/.22

Upcoming Splits
- (SSI) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Advance 4Q GDP is estimated to rise 3.0% versus a 2.0% rise in 3Q.
- Advance 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise 4.4% versus a 2.8% gain in 3Q.
- Advance 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise 1.5% versus a 1.9% gain in 3Q.
- The Employment Cost Index for 4Q is estimated to rise 1.0% versus a 1.0% gain in 3Q.

9:45 am EST
- The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for January is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus a reading of 51.6 in December.

10:00 am EST
- Construction Spending for December is estimated unch. versus a -.2% decline in November.

10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil build of 1,500,000 barrels versus an in increase of 789,000 barrels the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by 1,800,000 barrels versus a 4,009,000 barrel build the prior week. Distillate supplies are expected to fall by -2,100,000 barrels versus a 750,000 barrel increase the prior week. Refinery Utilization is expected to remain unch. versus a -.54% decline the prior week.

2:15 pm EST
- The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds rate at 5.25%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower on weakness in automaker and technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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