Sunday, February 11, 2007

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- President Bush said his plan to cut the nation’s dependence on oil is a key area for bipartisan action in Congress, and called on lawmakers to boost funding for alternative fuels research. “Every member of Congress who cares about strengthening the economy, protecting our national security and confronting climate change should support the energy initiatives I have set out,” Bush said in his weekly radio address.
- Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven leading industrial countries narrowed differences over risks posed by hedge funds, agreeing on further consultations that may affect the lightly regulated pools of capital.
- Hedge funds charge too much in fees for performance that frequently mimics major stock indexes, said Russell Read, chief investment officer of the $225 billion California Public Employees Retirement System.
- Rohan Walsh, who helps manage almost $2 billion as head of Australian equities at Invesco Asset Management, says commodities will trend down in 2008-2009.
- Nasdaq Stock Market’s(NDAQ) hostile bid for London Stock Exchange failed for the second time in 11 months as the majority of shareholders in the UK company spurned the $5.3 billion offer.
- The Palestinian national unity government Hamas and Fatah plan to form won’t recognize Israel, an aide to Prime Minister Ismael Hania said.
- Iran may agree to process only low-level uranium and expects the dispute about its nuclear program to be solved within four months if Western leaders drop their call for prior suspension of enrichment, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator said.
- Hindalco Industries Ltd., India’s biggest aluminum producer, agreed to buy all of Novelis Inc.(NVL) of Atlanta, GA for almost $6 billion in cash, aiming to gain sheet mills that supply can makers and car companies.
- Bond investors in Japan, the biggest sellers of US government debt last year, are returning to Treasuries as the US dollar gains and yields rise.
- The yen may decline after the Group of Seven industrial nations stopped short of saying that the currency’s weakness is a threat to the global economy.
- International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo Rato said the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations were “open-minded” about allowing the fund to sell part of its gold reserves.
- Iran is counting on Russia to prevent further UN sanctions over its nuclear program, an envoy to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said.
- India is stepping up purchases of US dollars after a 5% gain in the rupee in six months eroded corporate profits and threatened to slow the economy.
- Harvard University named Drew Gilpin Faust its president, appointing the first woman to lead the oldest college in the US as it tries to med faculty-administration relations damaged under predecessor Lawrence Summers.
- The Australian dollar may fall a second day on speculation Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens will lower his inflation forecast, making an interest rate hike less likely.
- Crude oil fell in NY on speculation supplies are sufficient to meet increased heating demand from a late cold-snap in the US. Output from the Elk Hills field, the seventh largest on the US mainland, may resume “in a few days” once repairs to fire damage are completed, Occidental Petroleum Corp.(OXY) said late Feb. 9.
- Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest state oil company, will increase supply to Asian refiners in March.
- Vietnam may impose capital controls next month to stem the dong’s two-month rally, reversing gains in the world’s best-performing stock market this year, said Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. The government may put restrictions on overseas funds on March 1 to deter speculators, while seeking to retain long-term investors, wrote Alex Joiner and Amy Auster, economists at Australia’s third-biggest bank, citing unidentified reports from financial institutions.
- The US Virgin Islands offers hedge funds a 90% tax credit for relocating in the sunny locale. Almost have of the funds that have moved there since 2001 have left, citing IRS harassment.

Wall Street Journal:
- The race is on to install solar-energy panels in American homes, thanks in part to generous government incentives such as California's $3.2 billion solar initiative, which was launched in January.

Orange County Register:
- Broadcom Corp.(BRCM) Chairman Henry Samueli said his company will supply chips for Apple’s(AAPL) iPhone, citing court documents.

NY Times:
- The most lethal weapon used against US troops in Iraq is being supplied by Iran.
- India’s economy may overheat as prices, especially for food, rise at more than twice the rate of industrialized nations, raising concern of an inflationary spiral.
- The US Congress has learned to circumvent their own ethics rules prohibiting lobbyists from treating them to meals, trips, stadium box seats or the discounted use of private jets. Among the events during the first two months of the new Congress that lobbyists were invited to help sponsor were birthday parties at $1,000 a person, martinis and margaritas at Washington restaurants for $1,000 a person, hunting and fishing trips for $5,000, weekend golf tournaments starting at $2,500 and a Who concert for $1,250 a seat.
- Surfing has emerged as a status sport like skiing and golf, attracting executives and professionals who talk business between waves.

Washington Post:
- Rudolph Giuliani received four standing ovations when he spoke at the California Republican Party convention, as he sought to gauge whether the group, which has more conservative views than his, would accept him.

Philadelphia Inquirer:
- Casinos in Atlantic City, New Jersey, are losing slot-machine revenue to competition form Pennsylvania, and new rules limiting smoking may accelerate the trend.

Reuters:
- Rupert Murdoch, of News Corp.(NWS), said on the company's latest conference call that an announcement regarding the launch of the Fox Business Channel would be forthcoming within a week.

LA Times:
- California wineries may cut prices on some vintages because of an overabundance of red wine grapes and increased competition from low-priced imports, citing wine sellers.

Financial Times:
- BP Plc(BP), Europe’s second-biggest oil company, is planning to shake up its board of directors in the wake of a recent series of setbacks.

la Repubblica:
- Italian Industry Minister Pierluigi Bersani within 10 days will introduce a set of measures giving incentives to individuals and businesses to save energy, citing Bersani.

El Nacional:
- Venezuela’s tax authority is set to tax private investments and assets that individuals own abroad as well as in the South American country, citing the proposed tax law’s text.

Asahi:
- North Korea has increased conditions for abandoning its nuclear program at the six-nation talks taking place in Beijing, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said.

Kuwait News Agency:
- Iraq predicts a budget deficit of $7.14 billion in 2007, assuming it sells oil this year for an average price of $50/bbl., citing Iraq’s finance minister. The Iraqi parliament yesterday endorsed spending of $41 billion for this year, clearing the way for development and reconstruction projects that have been delayed while the budget was debated. Crude exports will average 1.7 million barrels a day from Iraq’s southern port.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (COST), (CIT), (APA), (APC), (CHK) and (UNH).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -1.0% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.06%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ASF)/.44
- (ANAD)/.05
- (BBOX)/.76
- (NILE)/.31
- (BRO)/.27
- (CEPH)/.91
- (CRL)/.58
- (CHTT)/.37
- (CNA)/1.00
- (FLS)/.74
- (FWRD)/.43
- (GGP)/.28
- (GBE)/.09
- (IRBT)/-.07
- (LTR)/.98
- (PCLN)/.40
- (VECO)/.21
- (YUM)/.79

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Surplus for January is estimated to rise to $40.0 billion from $21.0 billion in December.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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