Thursday, February 15, 2007

DJIA Hits Another All-Time High on Positive Housing Report, Lower Long-Term Rates

Indices
S&P 500 1,456.81 +.10%
DJIA 12,765.01 +.18%
NASDAQ 2,497.10 +.35%
Russell 2000 815.43 +.18%
Wilshire 5000 14,677.58 +.13%
Russell 1000 Growth 575.0 +.31%
Russell 1000 Value 839.63 -.05%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 714.27 +.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 965.18 +.54%
Morgan Stanley Technology 586.86 +.57%
Transports 5,099.65 -.34%
Utilities 475.04 -.43%
MSCI Emerging Markets 117.27 +.51%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .76 -21.65%
NYSE Arms 1.09 +63.59%
Volatility(VIX) 10.22 -.10%
ISE Sentiment 135.0 +21.62%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.91 -.16%
Reformulated Gasoline 159.67 -1.21%
Natural Gas 7.36 +1.70%
Heating Oil 162.80 -.63%
Gold 673.90 +.28%
Base Metals 233.56 +2.58%
Copper 267.20 +3.11%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.70% -3 basis points
US Dollar 84.03 -.18%
CRB Index 303.80 +.62%

Leading Sectors
Steel +2.88%
HMOs +1.92%
Hospitals +1.88%

Lagging Sectors
Utilities -.43%
Energy -1.11%
Oil Service -1.68%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs:
- Downgraded (ABB) to Sell.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another all-time high on decelerating inflation readings and a positive housing report.
- Shares of InBev NV, the brewer of Beck’s and Stella Artois, surged the most ever and Anheuser-Busch(BUD) stock had its biggest gain in 10 months on merger rumors.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) expects a “small drop” in the growth in operating expenses in the year that starts in July.
- Northwest Airlines said it will be valued at $7 billion when it leaves bankruptcy and proposed repaying as much as 83% of creditors’ claims.
- Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG) said fourth-quarter profit more than doubled as it opened new restaurants. The stock is 5.5% higher after-hours.
- Baker Hughes(BHI), the world’s third-largest oilfield contractor, said profit rose less than predicted in the fourth quarter and will miss analyst estimates in the current quarter on slowing sales growth. The shares plunged 9.4%, the biggest single day decline since 2001.
- Shares of Palm Inc.(PALM) had their biggest jump in eight months on speculation the company will be acquired.
- General Electric(GE) agreed to pay $270 million for a stake in wind farms owned by Babcock & Brown in California, Illinois, New Mexico and Pennsylvania.
- Exxon Mobil(XOM) said its reserves of oil and natural gas rose by the equivalent of 2 billion barrels in 2006 on new fields in West Africa and the Middle East. Exxon replace 125% of the oil and gas it produced during the year.
- Chevron Corp.(CVX) and closely held Gulf LNG Energy LLC won approval by US regulators today to build liquefied natural-gas import terminals at Pascagoula, Mississippi.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Semi longs, Telecom longs and Energy-related shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was slightly positive today as the advance/decline line finished about even, almost every sector gained and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Today's overall market action was mildly bullish as the major averages finished near session highs. Energy-related shares saw the only meaningful weakness. It is interesting that for the first time in a very long time energy stocks are finishing near session lows despite oil finishing near session highs. I see few signs that the recent substantial hedges that have been put out are being taken off. I still expect a more meaningful surge higher over the coming weeks as shorts scramble and underinvested bulls grow impatient. I have heard or read 5 different pundits talk about U.S. economic collapse and depression in the last 24 hours, which bodes well for a continuation of stocks “climbing the wall of worry.”

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