Monday, February 12, 2007

Stocks Finish Modestly Lower on Profit-taking

Indices
S&P 500 1,433.37 -.33%
DJIA 12,552.55 -.22%
NASDAQ 2,450.38 -.38%
Russell 2000 805.79 -.16%
Wilshire 5000 14,447.69 -.36%
Russell 1000 Growth 564.78 -.40%
Russell 1000 Value 826.74 -.35%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 704.22 -.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 937.36 -.09%
Morgan Stanley Technology 570.57 -.40%
Transports 4,937.93 -.40%
Utilities 473.12 -.09%
MSCI Emerging Markets 113.99 -1.09%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call 1.16 +24.73%
NYSE Arms 1.11 -7.09%
Volatility(VIX) 11.61 +4.59%
ISE Sentiment 126.0 +13.5%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.64 -3.76%
Reformulated Gasoline 154.65 -4.23%
Natural Gas 7.27 -7.19%
Heating Oil 164.10 -4.88%
Gold 666.30 -.89%
Base Metals 218.58 +.12%
Copper 248.10 -1.57%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.80% +2 basis points
US Dollar 85.13 +.29%
CRB Index 299.69 -1.80%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.09%
HMOs +.67%
Computer Hardware +.42%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -1.38%
Gaming -1.41%
REITs -1.89%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
RBC Capital Markets:
- Upgraded (CCI) to Sector Outperform, raised target to $40.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil plunged below $58/bbl. in NY after Saudi Arabia told Asian refiners to expect more shipments next month and the nation’s oil minister said OPEC has no need to further rein in production.
- Latin American shares fell for a fourth session, led by Mexican cement-maker Cemex SAB, after Citigroup analysts said “euphoria” had driven prices to high.
- Gold prices in NY fell after the US dollar strengthened, reducing the metal’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
- Negotiators produced a draft accord early today aimed at ending North Korea’s nuclear-bomb program, the chief US negotiator, Christopher Hill, said in Beijing.
- Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s(ONXX) shares doubled after the company said its only drug, Nexavar, helped patients with liver cancer stay alive longer.
- Caremark RX(CMX) shareholders should vote against CVS Corp.’s(CVS) offer to buy the company for $23.1 billion, investor advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services said.

Handelsblatt:
- Over a third of German companies plan to increase spending this year, compared with less than 7% which may cut investment, citing a survey by polling company Psephos.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Semi longs and Telecom longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was modestly negative today as the advance/decline line finished slightly lower, most sectors declined and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Today's overall market action was mildly bearish. However, breadth wasn't too bad and ten sectors I follow actually rose. Meaningful losses were mainly confined to the REIT, I-banking, Energy and Gaming sectors. Oil is down $2.08/bbl. and failed to mount any sort of rally throughout the day. I continue to believe that almost all investors, both market bulls and bears, believe oil will remain high indefinitely. I still suspect a fall in oil below $50/bbl. will be a seminal event with respect to investor psychology this year. The U.S. budget surplus widened again in January on a 13% year-over-year surge in revenues as a result of the "bulletproof US economy." The U.S. Dollar Index is very close to another technical breakout to the upside. A breakout in the dollar would be another negative for commodities.

No comments: