Monday, March 05, 2007

Stocks Finish at Session Lows on Continuing Emerging Market and Sub-Prime Concerns

Indices
S&P 500 1,374.12 -.94%
DJIA 12,050.41 -.53%
NASDAQ 2,340.68 -1.15%
Russell 2000 760.06 -1.98%
Wilshire 5000 13,840.98 -1.14%
Russell 1000 Growth 542.51 -.89%
Russell 1000 Value 791.24 -1.22%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 680.43 -.57%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 915.55 -.87%
Morgan Stanley Technology 547.27 -.97%
Transports 4,722.73 -1.24%
Utilities 468.71 -1.13%
MSCI Emerging Markets 105.85 -3.0%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call 1.68 +27.27%
NYSE Arms 2.26 -3.0%
Volatility(VIX) 19.63 +5.48%
ISE Sentiment 91.0 unch.

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.90 -2.82%
Reformulated Gasoline 184.17 -3.16%
Natural Gas 7.28 +.51%
Heating Oil 172.20 -2.61%
Gold 637.10 -1.07%
Base Metals 228.15 -3.39%
Copper 266.0 -.89%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.5% unch.
US Dollar 84.15 +.49%
CRB Index 304.80 -1.71%

Leading Sectors
Defense -.18%
Drugs -.41%
Internet -.57%

Lagging Sectors
Coal -2.69%
Homebuilders -2.99%
REITs -3.75%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (EBAY) Buy, target $38.

Morgan Stanley:
- Downgraded (NCC) to Underweight, target $35.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- More Australians support the use of nuclear power than oppose it for the first time, according to a Newspoll.
- Shares of New Century Financial suffered their largest drop ever, leading to a decline in subprime mortgage companies and less-risky lenders.
- Oil, nickel, zinc and sugar led a global slump in commodities as China said it sought to slow its economic growth to 8.0% from 10.7%.
- Intermune Inc.(ITMN) halted a final-stage clinical trial of its Actimune drug for a fatal lung disease, after it failed to help patients live longer than a placebo. The shares fell 18% in after-hours trading.
- Children with bone bruises, breaks and sprains can get better relief from ibuprofren pills than from drugs containing acetaminophen or codeine, according to a Canadian study.
- Brooklyn apartment and townhouse prices jumped 16% in 2006 to a median of $570,000, driven by a wave of new construction in NY’s most populous borough.
- Anchor Point Capital LLC hedge fund manager Albert Hsu of New Canaan, Connecticut was charged with attempted kidnapping and attempted sexual assault for an Internet posting that fabricated an ex-girlfriend’s fantasy of being abducted and raped.
- Microchip Tech(MCHP), which makes microcontrollers and analog chips, forecast today that fiscal fourth-quarter sales will be flat to slightly higher than the $251 million the company reported in its third-quarter. The shares rose .90 after-hours to $36.15.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Medical longs and Telecom longs. I was stopped out of my (ILMN) long and added to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was very negative as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, every sector fell and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were sharply higher into the close. Today's overall market action was bearish. The U.S. Dollar Index finished at session highs, up 0.53%, while oil is at session lows, down $1.68 per barrel, to $59.96. A clear break below $60 per barrel would end oil's recent uptrend. I suspect that will occur later this week. As well, the Bloomberg Base Metals Spot Index is breaking back below its 200-day moving average and looks to be resuming its downtrend. The Fed's Kroszner said late this afternoon that community banks are healthy and profitable due to their good loan quality and capital ratios. My intraday gauge of investor angst finished again at very elevated levels given the relatively routine magnitude of the current pullback. However, The Broker/Dealer Index (XBD) gave up all its morning bounce and finished at session lows, down 2.60%. While Asian markets are very oversold and could bounce substantially at any time, today's weak U.S. finish and falling commodities prices don't bode well for a rally tonight. The Nikkei 225 futures are currently down about 122 points.

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