Monday, March 05, 2007

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Federal Reserve officials reiterated the US central bank’s confidence in the economic outlook today and played down last week’s decline in share prices.
- The yen snapped a three-day rally against the dollar and the euro as Japanese stock rebounded from five days of losses.
- People who eat less are more efficient at converting food into energy, which may help them live longer, a new study says.
- Democratic Representative Henry A. Waxman opened an investigation of drug and medical device research and marketing by Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), Boston Scientific(BSX), Eli Lilly(LLY), AstraZeneca Plc(AZN) and Cephalon Inc.(CEPH).
- Australian oil production is set to jump 15% this fiscal year and liquefied natural gas output may surge 22% as new projects start up, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said.

New York Times:
- Oil innovations pump new life into old wells. The Kern River oil field, discovered in 1899, was revived when Chevron(CVX) engineers here started injecting high-pressured steam to pump out more oil. The field, whose production had slumped to 10,000 barrels a day in the 1960s, now has a daily output of 85,000 barrels.

AP:
- The Privacy and Civil Liberties Board determined the Bush administration’s terrorism surveillance and financial tracking programs don’t violate Americans’ civil liberties. The programs have checks and reviews that prevent the violation of civil liberties, according to the board.
- Iran seems to have at least temporarily halted the uranium-enrichment program at the heart of its standoff with the UN Security Council, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday.

Financial Times:
- Economic growth in the European Union is near to the level the US achieved 20 years ago, citing a report by Eurochambres, a European business group. The pace of progress is “insufficient” to “really compete on the world stage,” citing the study. The EU’s current level of gross domestic product per capita was reached by the US in 1985, citing the report that illustrates the development gap between the two blocs. The EU’s employment rate and level of investment in research and development were reached by the US in 1978, while its level of productivity was matched in the US in 1989.

Commericial Times:
- Taiwan’s government has no plan to activate the National Stabilization Fund to support the island’s stock markets after yesterday’s plunge, citing a finance ministry official.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citgroup:
- Raised (MON) to Buy, raised target to $60.
- Cellulosic ethanol is right around the corner as several firms are already developing cellulosic ethanol at pilot plants, with the first commercialized production expected to come on line as early as 2009. Corn stover appears to be destined to be one of the first feedstocks used in commercial cellulosic ethanol production. Broin Companies will be spending $200 million to convert a 50 mgy traditional dry corn mill in Iowa to a 125 mgy corn stover fed cellulosic facility by 2009, with mgmt indicating that 25% of the corn stover can increase ethanol yields by approx. 30% over current technology. Importantly, members of Congress have indicated that increased support for cellulosic ethanol is expected to be featured in the new Farm Bill, with support on the “Hill” for cellulosic ethanol gaining steam as energy security is becoming a top priority.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.51%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.57%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CTAC)/-.20
- (BF/B)/.83
- (CNO)/.37
- (CPRT)/.32
- (PSS)/.11

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Final 4Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to come in at 1.5% versus a 3.0% prior estimate.
- Final 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise 3.2% versus a 1.7% prior estimate.

10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for January are estimated to fall -1.2% versus a 4.9% gain in December.
- Factory Orders for January are estimated to fall -4.5% versus a 2.4% gain in December.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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