Sunday, April 15, 2007

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The yen may weaken to a record low against the euro after officials from the Group of Seven industrial nations stopped short of saying that the Japanese currency’s weakness is a threat to the global economy.
- Russian police arrested opposition leader and former world chess champion Gary Kasparov along with more than 100 supporters and several journalists at an unsanctioned protest against President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
- President Bush, looking ahead to a meeting with lawmakers next week about a standoff on emergency funds for the troops in Iraq, said the inability to resolve differences on the issue is putting an unnecessary strain on the military.
- Google Inc.(GOOG) agreed to buy DoubleClick for $3.1 billion in its biggest-ever acquisition, gaining software for creating and measuring Internet advertising campaigns.
- European officials said that their economies can withstand the effects of the advancing euro and that a strong currency brings benefits.
- Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven nations said they are confident disparities in global trade and growth are starting to narrow, a trend that will extend the strongest expansion since the 1970s.
- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said today that his government is prepared to hold talks with any Arab countries that want to discuss a comprehensive Middle East peace plan approved by the Arab League last month.
- DeCode Genetics(DCGN), an Icelandic biotechnology company, will sell the first genetic test for type 2 diabetes risk in the US.
- Brazil’s surging currency is eroding exports for manufacturers of goods ranging from cars to teddy bears and undermining President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s efforts to lower unemployment.
- Apple’s announcement that it has delayed the release of its new Macintosh system software didn’t garner much negative reaction from major investment firms including Merrill Lynch(MER), Goldman Sachs(GS) and Deutsche Bank.
- European governments, led by Germany, continued to push the Group of Seven industrial nations to tighten oversight of hedge funds, against US opposition.
- Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics for the Mortgage Bankers Association sees a housing turnaround in 2008.
- Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, plans to increase production and will work to achieve “fair” prices, the Saudi Press Agency reported, citing a speech by King Abdullah. Saudi Arabia “works for achieving fair oil prices, taking into considering the interests of both producers and consumers,” the king said. The kingdom “also seeks to enhance its production capacity of oil.” Saudi aims to increase overall production to 12.5 million barrels a day within 21 months from 9.1 million barrels a day currently.
- China, the world’s biggest producer of aluminum, may further lower or remove tax benefits for export of the metal and copper to help rein in a record trade surplus. Tax rebates on exports of copper and aluminum products may be further reduced or cancels, while tax on exports of refined copper could be raised to as much as 30%, said Wang Gongmin, vice chairman of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Assoc.
- Shares of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl., China’s largest chipmaker, surged 12% after a report said US buyout firms may seek to buy as much as a 25% stake for about $600 million.

Wall Street Journal:
- A partnership including JC Flowers & Co. LLC and JPMorgan Chase(JPM) are in talks to acquire Sallie Mae(SLM), competing with Blackstone Group for a deal that could reach $20 billion.
- Why Investors Should Consider Real Estate.
- The New York Mercantile Exchange(NMX) plans to launch a uranium futures contract.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), AT&T(T) and Time Warner(TWX) want US regulators to review whether Google’s(GOOG) $3.1 billion purchase of DoubleClick Inc. gives the company too much control over the online advertising market.

NY Times:
- Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton proposed cutting 500,000 private contractors from the federal payroll. Some contractors cost more than federal workers and aren’t as competent or accountable, citing a speech given by Clinton last night at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics.
- The number of available hotel rooms in Lower Manhattan may more than double in the next few years as more than 3,000 rooms are under construction or in planning stages.
- For four days last December, America’s dome in the desert, Las Vegas, played host to a convention dedicated to the proposition that growing old is “a treatable medical condition.”
- Thomas H. Lee Partners LP and Bain Capital Partners LP have proposed raising their $26 billion offer for broadcaster Clear Channel Communications(CCU).

Washington Post:
- Some of Iraq’s main Sunni militant groups are splitting from al-Qaeda in Iraq because they want to negotiate with US troops to hasten their withdrawal. The Islamic Army last week on its Web site called on bin Laden to stop groups killing in his name.
- Central Intelligence Agency Director Michael Hayden said absorbing the new employees who joined after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks is the most challenging part of his job. Hayden said 50% of the CIA’s employees have been hired since Sept. 11 and one-fifth of the analysts were hired in the last year.

Inquirer:
- The Philadelphia Inquirer will print ads on its front page starting tomorrow, joining a handful of US newspapers running ads on a page once dedicated solely to news.
- The Pennsylvania Supreme Court granted a preliminary injunction to stop Philadelphia from putting an anti-casino referendum question on a May 15 primary-election ballot.

Advertising Age:
- Google’s acquisition of Doubleclick gives the company something it couldn’t build on its own – a significant presence in the online display-ad market. The $3.1 billion price tag was a small price to pay to keep Microsoft(MSFT) or any other rival from getting it.

Financial Times:
- Billionaire Kirk Kerkorian’s Tracinda Corp. will have to raise its bid for Chrysler or drop its demand for exclusive negotiations with the automaker’s German parent.

Observer:
- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and its partners are prepared to make a hostile bid for ABN Amro Holding NV if they aren’t able to secure an agreed deal for the Dutch bank.

El Pais:
- Eastman Kodak(EK) will post a profit in 2008, Chairman Antonio Perez said.

Automotive News Europe:
- Continental AG, the world’s fourth-largest tiremaker, is unable to serve all customer requests on hybrid technology because of a shortage of skilled staff. Hannover, Germany-based Continental would need to double its 160-member team dealing with hybrid systems to satisfy an increase of as much as 60% in customer demand. The company has raised investment in hybrid systems as higher gasoline prices spur demand for more fuel-efficient vehicles.

El Naqcional:
- Corruption in Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez is implementing a socialist state, is widespread and oversight agencies are failing to root it out, citing lawmaker Pastora Medina.

Economic Daily News:
- Toshiba Corp. may raise orders from its chip-packaging and testing partner, Powertech Technology Inc. by 40%.

South China Morning Post:
- Best Buy(BBY) bought an additional 20% stake in Nanjing, China-based Jiangsu Five Star Appliance to expand to second and third-tier cities.

Shanghai Securities News:
- China’s lending growth will slow further as the government continues to tighten liquidity, citing central bank vice governor Wu Xiaoling. The central bank’s “preemptive” measures to curb loan growth and soak up excess liquidity has started to slow bank lending, as shown by the March money supply data, Wu said.

Gulf Times:
- Emaar Properties PJSC is among companies from the United Arab Emirates that may invest billions of dollars in northern Iraq, citing the Kurdish trade minister.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (DOW), (ADBE), (KSWS) and (ODP).
- Made negative comments on emerging markets.

Citigroup:
- Google’s(GOOG) acquisition of DoubleClick 1) will substantially improve GOOG’s position in the online display segment(30% of total net advertising 2)will broadly strengthen GOOG’s competitive position vs. Yahoo!(YHOO) and Microsoft(MSFT) and 3) an all-cash deal vs. the all-stock YouTube deal & still leaves GOOG with $9.2 billion in cash.

Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (AUO).

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.08%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AMLN)/-.04
- (CHP)/-.05
- (C)/1.09
- (ETN)/1.41
- (LLY)/.79
- (EXBD)/.27
- (MAT)/-.05
- (WB)/1.16

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Advance Retail Sales for March are estimated to rise .6% versus a .1% gain in February.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for March are estimated to rise .9% versus a -.1% gain in February.
- Empire Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 7.5 versus 1.9 in March.

9:00 am EST
- Net Long-term TIC Flows for February are estimated to fall to $75.0 billion versus $97.4 billion in January.

10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for February are estimated to rise .3% versus a .2% gain in January.

1:00 pm EST
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated to fall to 35 versus 36 in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, boosted by automaker and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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