Monday, April 30, 2007

Stocks Finish at Session Lows on Profit-taking and Mixed Economic Data

Indices
S&P 500 1,482.37 -.78%
DJIA 13,062.91 -.44%
NASDAQ 2,525.09 -1.26%
Russell 2000 814.57 -1.82%
Wilshire 5000 14,914.85 -.91%
Russell 1000 Growth 584.62 -1.02%
Russell 1000 Value 852.19 -.64%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 732.55 -.66%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,000.55 -1.28%
Morgan Stanley Technology 593.42 -1.19%
Transports 5,037.35 -1.66%
Utilities 519.25 -.98%
MSCI Emerging Markets 121.44 -1.07%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .94 -6.0%
NYSE Arms 1.45 +18.20%
Volatility(VIX) 14.22 +14.2%
ISE Sentiment 121.0 -11.03%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.61 -1.26%
Reformulated Gasoline 244.05 +3.35%
Natural Gas 7.85 +.19%
Heating Oil 191.35 unch.
Gold 680.30 -.21%
Base Metals 270.44 +.75%
Copper 354.20 +.18%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.62% -7 basis points
US Dollar 81.45 -.10%
CRB Index 312.71 -.47%

Leading Sectors
Telecom -.03%
Foods -.32%
Drugs -.42%

Lagging Sectors
Biotech -1.90%
Oil Service -1.91%
Homebuilders -2.44%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil fell on worries over global demand and profit-taking by investment funds.
- Circuit City Stores(CC) said it expects to post a first-quarter loss of as much as $90 million before taxes as rivals cut prices on flat-panel television sets. The stock fell 8.8% in after-hours trading.
- Barton Biggs, managing partner of Traxis Partners LLC, said the Dow Jones Industrial Average may rise as much as 19% this year and argued that shares of the largest US companies are “very cheap” relative to other asset classes. “Markets in general are going higher, but I think large caps in particular – particularly in the US – are going to do even better than the S&P 500 or a broader index of the market,” said Biggs, 74, a former Morgan Stanley strategist who left to run the $1.84 billion hedge fund four years ago. The DJIA is up 5.7% so far this year.

Nikkei English News:
- Japan’s Financial Services Agency will ask hedge funds operating in the country to submit annual reports as part of an effort to monitor their increasing activity.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Retail longs, Semi longs, Biotech longs and Medical longs. I added to my (EEM) short and added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, almost every sector fell and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were above average into the close. Today's overall market action was bearish. After such a good month, it isn't surprising to see short-term trading oriented investors taking profits and putting out new shorts. The NYSE Arms Index was at above-average levels throughout most of the day. The VIX rose 14.2% and the ISE Sentiment Index fell 11% to a below average 121.0. With the 10-year yield falling another 7 basis points, small caps and cyclicals underperforming and oil declining, it appears another bout of economic jitters is also underway that may last a few days.

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