Monday, April 09, 2007

Stocks Finish Mixed as Oil Prices Fall Most in 3 Months

Indices
S&P 500 1,444.61 +.06%
DJIA 12,569.14 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,469.18 -.09%
Russell 2000 811.64 -.21%
Wilshire 5000 14,593.18 +.06%
Russell 1000 Growth 570.09 +.05%
Russell 1000 Value 834.26 +.12%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 712.71 +.19%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 974.94 +.60%
Morgan Stanley Technology 571.05 -.30%
Transports 5,010.10 +1.89%
Utilities 513.60 +.64%
MSCI Emerging Markets 120.35 +.49%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .76 +1.33%
NYSE Arms .74 -9.01%
Volatility(VIX) 13.14 -.68%
ISE Sentiment 109.0 -13.49%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.71 -4.0%
Reformulated Gasoline 210.0 -1.35%
Natural Gas 7.56 -.57%
Heating Oil 182.50 -1.93%
Gold 675.90 -.52%
Base Metals 265.88 unch.
Copper 350.50 +3.79%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.74% -1 basis point
US Dollar 83.10 +.13%
CRB Index 314.54 -.96%

Leading Sectors
Road&Rail +3.7%
Coal +2.91%
Steel +1.20%

Lagging Sectors
Banks -.36%
Computer Services -.37%
Tobacco -.60%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
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Style Performance
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Economic Calendar
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After-hours Movers
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In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
CIBC:
- Rated (ESRX) Sector Outperformer.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil plunged $2.77 a barrel in NY, the biggest decline in three months on speculation US crude oil inventories jumped again last week.
- The Dow Chemical Co.(DOW) board of directors said it has held no discussions about a leveraged buyout of the company and reiterated support for CEO Andrew Liveris’s strategy for the company.
- President Vladimir Putin has already brought Russian newspapers and television to heel. Now he’s turning his attention to the Internet.
- Citigroup(C) is in talks to buy NY hedge-fund manage Old Lane LP in an effort to land Vikram Pandit as head of so-called alternative investments such as private equity and real estate.
- Tribune Co.(TRB) received commitments for $12.2 billion in debt financing to fund billionaire investor Sam Zell’s plan to take the company private, according to a regulatory filing.
- Take-Two Interactive(TTWO) said CFO Karl Winters resigned, less than two weeks after shareholders took control of the video-game maker and ousted its CEO.
- DivX Inc.(DIVX) today announced that, based on preliminary information, it currently expects that revenue and pre-tax earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2007 will be higher than previous guidance. The shares surged 11.2% after-hours.
- Cotton in NY fell the most in three months on speculation US supplies will rise further as exports lag behind last year.
- Starbucks Corp.(SBUX) will build a new roasting plant in South Carolina to better distribute coffee in the US southeast.
- Orange-juice futures in NY fell to the lowest in almost six months on speculation demand is declining.
- Seagate Technology(STX) said preliminary fiscal third-quarter revenue was $2.8 billion, less than its forecasted range of $2.9-$3.0 billion. The stock fell .14 to $23.32 in after hours trading.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished about even today as gains in my Telecom longs and Retail longs offset losses in my Medical longs and Semi longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was mixed today as the advance/decline line finished slightly lower, most sectors gained and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were about average into the close. Today's overall market action was neutral. While buyout speculation and a sharp decline in oil failed to lift stocks meaningfully, a pause after last week's strong gains shouldn't be too concerning for the bulls. Moreover, despite the muted performance in the major averages, a number of stocks rose meaningfully once again. The underlying tone of the broad market remains very constructive. The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line made another all-time high last week. Moody's (MCO) reported today that the global default rate on junk bonds fell to 1.4% in March, the lowest in a decade, according to Bloomberg. Moreover, the firm is forecasting default rates to only rise to 3.5% by 2009 vs. the long-term average of 5.1%. I still expect stocks to rise modestly later this week.

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