Job Market Still Healthy, Leading Indicators Rise Slightly

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 339K versus estimates of 320K and 343K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2531K versus estimates of 2510K and 2525K prior.
- Leading Indicators for March rose .1% versus estimates of a .1% gain and a -.6% decline in February.

BOTTOM LINE: The number of US workers filing applications for jobless benefits fell less than forecast last week, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving-average of jobless claims rose to 328,750 from 323,500 the prior week. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, held steady at a low 1.9%. The Fed’s Plosser recently said he expects income growth and low unemployment to propel spending this year. I continue to believe the job market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor cost increases.

A measure of the US economy’s future course rose in March for the first time in three months, as the labor market expanded and factories received more orders, Bloomberg reported. I continue to believe US economic growth came in substantially below trend in 1Q on significant inventory de-stocking. I still expect US growth to begin bouncing back to more average levels this quarter.