Indices
S&P 500 1,506.33 +.38%
DJIA 13,566.97 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,753.93 +1.06%
Russell 2000 810.08 +1.41%
Wilshire 5000 15,175.10 +.46%
Russell 1000 Growth 617.48 +.48%
Russell 1000 Value 832.52 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 729.54 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,037.05 -.15%
Morgan Stanley Technology 671.93 +1.0%
Transports 4,845.27 +.91%
Utilities 501.86 +.64%
MSCI Emerging Markets 152.09 -1.36%
Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call 1.01 -10.62%
NYSE Arms .79 -77.65%
Volatility(VIX) 21.64 -5.75%
ISE Sentiment 108.0 +6.93%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil $87.56 -1.17%
Reformulated Gasoline 212.65 -1.95%
Natural Gas 6.88 -2.22%
Heating Oil 230.87 -.94%
Gold 758.0 -1.35%
Base Metals 245.22 -2.94%
Copper 350.20 -1.39%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.41% +2 basis points
US Dollar 78.0 +.77%
CRB Index 336.35 -1.11%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +3.59%
Retail +2.11%
Computer Hardware +2.01%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.14%
Gold -2.37%
Oil Tankers -3.49%
Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Bear Stearns:
- Rated (AMAG) Outperform.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) fourth-quarter profit jumped 67%, topping analysts’ estimates, on soaring demand for the Macintosh computer, the iPhone handset and new iPods. The shares surged 6.6% in after-hours trading.
- Gilead Sciences(GILD), the largest maker of HIV drugs in the US, said it plans to buy back as much as $3 billion of its stock.
- Netflix(NFLX), the largest mail-order movie-rental service, said profit rose more than analysts anticipated and raised its subscriber forecast after lowering prices to boost customer demand. The stock soared 14% in extended trading.
- Target Corp.(TGT) cut its October forecast slightly, saying sales at locations open at least a year may rise as much as 4%. The stock was unch. in extended trading.
- Texas Instruments(TXN) said third-quarter earnings rose 11%, boosted by sales of more-profitable chips used in computers, cars and washing machines. The stock fell $1/share in after-hours trading.
- American Express(AXP), the third-largest US credit-card network, said profit climbed 10% as customer spending and merchant fees increased. The stock is rising $1.50/share in extended trading.
- Thornburg Mortgage(TMA) rose the most in more than two months after its CEO Garrett Thornburg said he increased his stake in the company.
- Crude oil fell from a record as concern eased that at Turkish assault on Kurdish militants in northern Iraq was imminent.
- Gold fell the most in two weeks after the US dollar rebounded against the euro, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.
Wall Street Journal:
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said he’s seeing “evidence of a healing process” in credit markets.
Financial Times:
- US sees more banks leaving Tehran.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Computer longs, Retail longs, Semi longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was slightly positive today as the advance/decline line finished mildly higher, most sectors rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were slightly above average into the close. Today's overall market action was very bullish, given morning losses. Again today, many stocks posted huge outperformance vs. the averages. Homebuilding stocks led the way today, rising 3.6%. Much of this move may be related to short-covering. For example, according to NYSE data, 99% of Beazer's (BZH) float is now short. It is a big positive to see retail shares posting meaningful gains. Given dramatically lowered expectations and my belief that the holiday shopping season will easily exceed those estimates, the sector should outperform through year-end. The tech sector remains a source of strength, and I continue to expect it to remain so over the intermediate-term. Expectations were high for Apple's (AAPL) report today. The company soundly beat estimates and actually boosted guidance. Any sell-off in the shares near-term on profit-taking will likely remain muted and short term in nature, as I expect a mind-bogglingly good holiday selling season for the company. As well, the stock still has a very reasonable valuation and should continue to experience meaningful multiple expansion as growth stocks remain in high-demand globally. InsiderScore.com is reporting that General Electric (GE) chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt just bought $3.3 million in GE stock. He has been acquiring stock for three years, however, this purchase was unusual. It came with GE's stock just 5% off a multi-year high, which was the most he has ever paid for the shares. As well, the 83,000 shares he bought are the most he has ever acquired during a single quarter. Given GE's exposure to the global economy, I suspect this large purchase says something about Immelt's confidence in the future, while many continue to point to an imminent recession. Bloomberg had an interesting article today that may indicate global portfolio managers are beginning to increase allocations to U.S. stocks. Some of Europe's biggest investors are expecting accelerating earnings growth for U.S. companies next year and decelerating profit growth for European companies. A weak dollar and lower interest rates give U.S. companies an advantage, they say. Moreover, a recent Merrill Lynch survey of investors managing $671 billion found those planning to boost European holdings fell to 11% in October from 20%, while 21% plan to put more assets in U.S. shares. The global "herd" has believed for some time that U.S. equities are the least attractive in the world and the dollar can only fall, in my opinion. Now the U.S. dollar is extremely oversold at a time of falling interest rates in the U.S. A lot of bad news is factored in to most stocks at current levels. At the same time, European policymakers continue to make hawkish statements, while growth appears to be slowing a bit. I am in the camp with those European investors who think this is a recipe for slower European growth and better U.S. growth next year. As well, I suspect a few global portfolio managers perceive the recent dollar decline as excessive. I sense global investors are beginning to warm to U.S. equities as they anticipate a bounce in the U.S. dollar next year and better relative growth in the U.S. compared to Europe. This could significantly boost the demand for U.S. stocks at a time of low supply and near-record short interest, which should help propel the major averages to further outsized gains.
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