Thursday, October 18, 2007

Stocks Finish Mixed as Rising Rate Cut Odds Offset Higher Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,540.08 -.08%
DJIA 13,888.96 -.03%
NASDAQ 2,799.31 +.24%
Russell 2000 825.03 +.02%
Wilshire 5000 15,501.21 -.05%
Russell 1000 Growth 631.12 +.23%
Russell 1000 Value 850.51 -.36%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 741.99 -.02%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,072.46 +.30%
Morgan Stanley Technology 682.27 -.18%
Transports 4,908.58 +.59%
Utilities 510.40 -.30%
MSCI Emerging Markets 157.47 +.48%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .80 -14.89%
NYSE Arms 1.09 +.59%
Volatility(VIX) 18.50 -.22%
ISE Sentiment 124.0 -10.79%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil $89.53 +2.43%
Reformulated Gasoline 218.26 +1.68%
Natural Gas 7.35 -1.38%
Heating Oil 235.45 +1.54%
Gold 773.3 +1.44%
Base Metals 251.43 +.78%
Copper 353.60 -1.67%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.50% -6 basis points
US Dollar 77.60 -.66%
CRB Index 342.18%

Leading Sectors
Steel +3.02%
Road & Rail +2.22%
Computer Hardware +1.10%

Lagging Sectors
Biotech -1.31%
Retail -1.31%
Airlines -1.80%

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
In Play


Afternoon Recommendations
Deutsche Bank:

- Rated (RDNT) Buy.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Google Inc.(GOOG) said third quarter profit jumped 46%, beating analysts’ estimates, after the company extended its lead over Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) and grew outside the US. The stock is rising another 5 points in after-hours trading.
- Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG), the industry leader in surgical robotics, today reported third quarter 2007 revenue of $156.9 million, increasing 64% from $95.8 million for the third quarter of 2006. Third quarter 2007 revenue growth was driven by continued robotic procedure adoption and higher da Vinci(r) Surgical System sales.
The stock is rising another 5% in extended trading.
- Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), the second-largest market of pc processors, reported a smaller-than-expected loss after sales beat estimates, sending the shares highs.
- Republicans criticized California Democrat Pete Stark for saying on the House floor that US troops in Iraq “get their heads blown off for the president’s amusement.”

- Billionaire Warren Buffett said his Berkshire Hathaway(BRK/A) sold its entire stake in PetroChina(PTR), a company that’s majority owned by the Chinese government and the focus of a divestment campaign by human rights groups.

Wall Street Journal:
- An audio recording of an internal conference call at LDK Solar Co., which has been accused by a former employee of improper accounting, reveals that other officials of the US-listed Chinese “clean technology” company were confused about the quality of its inventory.

Financial Times:
- Biogen Idec(BIIB) in process of signing confidentiality agreement with prospective suitors, source says.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Software longs, Biotech longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was neutral today as the advance/decline line finished neutral, sector performance was mixed and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were slightly above average into the close. Today's overall market action was mildly bearish, given today’s news. Again today, many stocks posted huge outperformance vs. the averages. I keep hearing that only a handful of stocks are moving higher. I strongly disagree. My monitor pages are filled with hundreds of stocks today posting 1.5%+ gains. Many stocks that I never even hear mentioned in the press are soaring right now. This year's best-performing style remains mid-cap growth, rising 16% year-to-date, and this area is where I am finding the best new ideas. This remains one of the best markets I have ever seen for true stockpickers. I continue to believe that is the result of the explosion in popularity of technical analysis, ETFs and quantitative funds. Google's (GOOG) report looked stunningly positive to me, and the initial reaction was a sell-off in the shares after-hours, as I expected. I still think the shares will be higher by day's end tomorrow and still see huge upside potential over the long term. Other positive earnings reports after the close could also help boost the major averages tomorrow.

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