Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Stocks Finish Lower on Rising Energy Prices, Housing Worries

Indices
S&P 500 1,538.53 -.66%
DJIA 13,912.94 -.51%
NASDAQ 2,763.91 -.58%
Russell 2000 823.35 -.72%
Wilshire 5000 15,480.26 -.66%
Russell 1000 Growth 627.06 -.48%
Russell 1000 Value 854.22 -.89%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 743.12 -.32%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,067.53 -1.03%
Morgan Stanley Technology 672.36 -1.42%
Transports 4,833.35 -1.14%
Utilities 512.89 -.23%
MSCI Emerging Markets 154.82 -2.17%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .94 +17.5%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +10.7%
Volatility(VIX) 20.02 +4.0%
ISE Sentiment 121.0 -20.92%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil $87.42 +1.50%
Reformulated Gasoline 217.20 +.67%
Natural Gas 7.37 -.98%
Heating Oil 233.75 +1.31%
Gold 764.60 +.31%
Base Metals 252.23 -2.47%
Copper 363.75 -1.32%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.64% -3 basis points
US Dollar 78.23 +.19%
CRB Index 339.33 +.35%

Leading Sectors
Computer Services +.83%
Restaurants +.68%
Semis +.51%

Lagging Sectors
Coal -1.85%
Banks -2.11%
Homebuilders -2.16%

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
In Play


Afternoon Recommendations
Bear Stearns:

- Rated (GME) Outperform, target $74.
- Rated (ANSS) Outperform, target $45.

Deutsche Bank:
- Upgraded (X) to Buy.

Oppenheimer:
- Rated (IVC) Buy, target $30.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Intel Corp.(INTC), the world’s largest semiconductor maker, said profit rose 43% on higher demand for personal computers in Europe and Asia. The company forecast sales that beat estimates, sending the shares 5.7% higher in after-hours trading.
- Yahoo!(YHOO) reported third-quarter results that beat analysts’ estimates, signaling that acquisitions and new advertising software may be spurring growth. The shares jumped 10% in extended trading.
- Research In Motion(RIMM), maker of the BlackBerry e-mail phone, will see a rush of holiday sales this season as more consumers buy the devices, Co-CEO Balsillie said.
- IBM(IBM), the biggest computer-services company, said third-quarter profit rose 6.3% on new contracts and software sales.
- Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY) won US approval for a drug to treat the most advanced form of breast cancer, the first new type of chemotherapy for the disease in 14 years.
The stock rose 2.5% in after-hours trading.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished about even today as losses in my Software longs and Medical longs offset gains in my Biotech longs, Computer longs and Semi longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, sector performance was mostly negative and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were above average into the close. Today's overall market action was mildly bearish. Growth stocks have been outperforming value stocks in both up and down markets, and the same was the case today. Hundreds of stocks I monitor posted gains or just slight losses today, notwithstanding the major averages. Weakness was the most severe in the homebuilders and financials. Semi, energy, restaurant, computer service and defense stocks were sources of strength. Given the headlines today, today's losses and breadth weren't too bad. The NYSE Arms ran above 1.3 most of the day, yet the bears were unable to gain significant traction. This bodes well for gains tomorrow, especially given the earnings announcements in tech after the close today.

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